Druzhba Pipeline - No more friendship just business?

By Jozef Badida

Former members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON) were linked through pipelines showing their Brotherhood – Bratstvo (natural gas) or Friendship – Druzhba (oil). During the Cold War nobody could really imagine any supply disruption between the socialist allies. But after the collapse of the Soviet Bloc, only uncertain business and “empty” names remain. This has been proven few times when Russia and Ukraine/Belarus had price disputes leading to the supply shortages (e.g. 2007 for oil, 2009 for natural gas). Therefore, in the following article we would like to tackle, particularly, the security of oil supply (SoS) of the Central European members of the EU. Are they ready for a potential Druzhba breakdown? What do they do with the purpose of improving their SoS? Do the concerned refineries have access to any alternative crude oil supply route?

South Stream Shapes European Energy Security, Nabucco Falls Behind

By Igor Alexeev

South Stream is an ambitious endeavor of Russia’s energy giant Gazprom to get direct access to the EU energy market. It is portrayed and criticized by some politicians in Europe as a “dangerous” gateway to a broader economic relationship with Moscow. Remarkably enough, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary have one-by-one opted for the project.

How the Alternative Energy Megatrend will impact global geopolitical relations

The Greening of Geopolitics

By Dr Alexander Mirtchev

The advent of renewable energies is generally regarded from a fairly narrow perspective: whether – and to what extent – they are able to replace fossil fuels and what this would mean for the energy system and the economy. Such a perspective profoundly underestimates the potential consequences of what is in fact a revolutionary global development: a socio-political and techno-economic megatrend that has the ability to become a global societal game-changer, writes Alexander Mirtchev, Vice-President of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI). According to Mirtchev, the ‘Alternative Energy Megatrend’ will have far-reaching effects on global geopolitical relations and security concerns – effects that have yet to be fully grasped by most observers. This article is adapted from his upcoming book: “The Alternative Energy Megatrend: A Global Security Discourse in the Universally-Securitized World”.

Kurdistan's natural gas resources may become a game-changer over the longer term

By Olgu Okumus

If a firm manages to create a dominant position in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG) oil business this could, in the long term, open a door to the gas business, as it did in the Caspian zones in the 1990s, when the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline prepared the ground for the South Caspian gas pipeline and TANAP, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline. A similar future may be possible for the KRG and the firms working within it. The KRG’s proven gas reserves are estimated at 2.8-5.7 trillion cubic meters. That is about four times more than Azerbaijan's reserves. In the perspective of the southern energy corridor projects, KRG’s natural gas sources may become a game-changer over the longer term.

Japanese utilities may snub Putin's plan to feed Asia with LNG

By Rudolf ten Hoedt

DISPATCH FROM TOKYO: "LNG from Vladivostok is no go -STOP- utilities not buying -STOP- Gazprom needs to change strategy." Friday February 22nd, this news dispatch from news agency Nikkei exploded in energy circles in Japan's capital Tokyo. Nikkei had just suggested that Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom had taken the final decision to build a liquefied natural gas plant (LNG) in Vladivostok on the Pacific coast of Russia's Far East. That morning telephone lines from Tokyo to Moscow were red hot. The LNG plant in Vladivostok is scheduled to start operations in 2018, Nikkei reported, and is meant for export to customers in Asia, including Japan.

Why the Energy Charter Treaty could become the key to the success of the Trans-Afghan energy corridor

By Danila Bochkarev

The energy deficits and power shortages in Southwest Asia force key regional players to look for new sources of supply at home and abroad. Turkmenistan's gas and Central Asia's hydroelectricity could become indispensable sources of energy for the regional states, in particular for Pakistan. Afghanistan could become a key gas and electricity transit corridor. But this can only happen if a regional multilateral framework is created in which energy investments are secure. Probably the best way to achieve this is by further extending the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), which already has a considerable presence in Central Asia, to encompass all the major players in Southwest Asia. The ECT might even become for Southwest Asia what the European Coal and Steel Community was for Europe.

Evolution in the Russian gas market - competition for customers

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has published papers by James Henderson and Simon Pirani which evaluate the development of competition in the Russian gas production sector and the impact of the recession and pricing policies on demand for Russian gas in its main markets.

The rise of the gas independents: a game changer for Russia

By Danila Bochkarev

The rise of independent gas producers in Russia marks a paradigm-shift for the domestic market, and could ultimately challenge Gazprom's dominant position in the export market, according to Danila Bochkarev, Senior Fellow at the EastWest Institute in Brussels. For the EU's drive towards diversification of gas supplies, the emergence of new suppliers could be welcome news.

Why international oil companies are turning their back on Bagdhad

By Olgu Okumus

Iraqi Kurdistan has fairly suddenly become a magnet for international oil companies (IOCs), who are increasingly turning their back on the central government in Bagdhad and seeking their fortunes in Erbil. The reasons for this change have to do with Bagdhad's inability to create a reliable investment framework, but they are also geopolitical in nature. With the Syrian crisis, two alliances have formed in the region: the Ankara-Erbil axis, supported by the US and the Gulf States and the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus axis. As a result, energy investments in Kurdistan will inevitably have political overtones, as they will serve as support for one party over the other.

Algerian attack signals dwindling prospects of North African oil and gas production

By David Drury

The tragic and dramatic events at the BP/Statoil In Amenas gas plant in Algeria provided a shocking reminder of the vulnerability of major energy installations to terrorist attacks.  The incident prompts a whole series of questions about the physical security of oil and gas workers and installations in dangerous environments, as well as raising the inevitable concerns about Europe's security energy of supply. The implications of the attack certainly seem disquieting for the international oil companies. But how worried should Europe be about the security of its oil and gas supplies from North Africa in the wake of the In Amenas horror? Here there may be less cause for serious concern. David Drury, Managing Consultant with Gas Strategies and former General Manager of BP Algeria, reflects on the immediate and longer-term implications of the In Amenas attack.

The uncertain future of Gazprom: the moment of truth is approaching

By Andrej Tibold

Gazprom is finding itself between a rock and a hard place. Adverse market circumstances are putting pressure on the company's financial results and international market position. At the same time, the government is pushing Gazprom into huge investments that the company can ill afford and demanding much better results. If the company does not deliver, it might lose its export monopoly and be broken up into a production and supply unit and an infrastructure unit, say leading experts on Russia's gas industry. EER spoke with two of them.

Interview: Andrew McCarthy, CEO of Emperor Oil

"Investing in Africa and the Middle East is no riskier than in the US or Europe"

By James Stafford, oilprice.com

More and more western oil and gas companies are braving high-risk places like Sudan, Iraq and even Yemen. Emperor Oil is a case in point. The Canadian company is undertaking a large oil project in Sudan. It is also very active in Turkey. According to Emperor Oil's CEO Andrew McCarthy it is no riskier to invest in conventional oil projects in Africa than in unconventional projects, for example in the deep sea, in North America or Europe. "Is it less risky to drill a mile below the ocean surface and create the kind of disaster we saw BP with in the Gulf, or do we continue to look for work in regions that have accessible resources and are anxious to advance their economic position?" he asks. Interview by James Stafford of oilprice.com.

Commission vs Gazprom: Antitrust Clash of the Decade?

By Alan Riley

This new CEPS Policy Brief boldly asserts that the antitrust case launched by DG Competition against Gazprom on September 4th will turn out to be the landmark antitrust case of this decade, in much the same way that Microsoft v. Commission was the defining antitrust lawsuit of the last decade. The paper argues that, for a host of political and economic reasons, this case is likely to be hard fought by both sides to a final prohibition decision and then onwards into the EU courts. In the process, the European gas market and the powers of DG Competition in the energy field are likely to be transformed.

Peering into the fog of a Russian energy war

Why Is AAR Worth $28bn?

By Matthew Hulbert

Nobody has quite dared to pose the question, but why is Rosneft apparently willing to pay $28bn for the AAR oligarch's 50% stake in TNK-BP, when it only paid $26bn for BP's other 50% holding? Good question; don't expect pretty answers. Commercial and political interests always go hand in hand in Russia, and this deal isn't an exception to rule.

Investing in East African Oil and Gas: Going for the (Fragile) Golden Egg

Oilprice.com

As East African nations line up to become the next key oil and gas market, now is the time to enter the game, but beware the pitfalls. Major discoveries are tantalizingly promising, but questions of infrastructure to make them commercially viable, uncertain regulatory environments and the potential for conflict put up plenty of roadblocks. Oilprice.com examines five key markets inside-out.

Putin increases control over Russian energy

By Alexander Gusev

Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently created a new Energy Commission by which he is seeking to wrest control over the energy sector from the government of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. This move will lead to a further strengthening of the role of the State in the Russian oil and gas industry. It is bad news for those who are hoping for a more transparent investment climate, argues Alexander Gusev, Research Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

Sino-Russian Oil and Gas Cooperation: The Reality and Implications

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES)

China and Russia are giant countries whose recent economic and energy experience could hardly be more different: in the one, unprecedentedly rapid industrialisation has sent its share of world primary energy consumption soaring from 7 to 20 percent since 1985 (overtaking the USA); in the other the collapse of centrally planned industry has reduced its share from 11 to 6 percent during the same period.

The Future of the Druzhba Pipeline

International Institute of Political Science (IIPS)

The International Institute of Political Science (IIPS) has recently released a new study which was prepared by the researchers from both IIPS and the Department of International Relations and European Studies. It focuses on the future of oil supply of the Czech Republic through the Druzhba pipeline, threats endangering this supply route and potential cooperation between the Czech Republic and Poland on issues of oil supply.

Resetting Gazprom in the Golden Age of Gas

By Alan Riley

The Golden Age of Gas appears to provide more threats to Gazprom than opportunities. Shale gas has undermined the commercial rationale for the Shtokman project. The European Commission's plan to open up the European gas market and the recently announced antitrust investigation against Gazprom, threaten the company's position in European markets. However, Gazprom also enjoys substantial opportunities. Greater supply diversity in Europe reduces the 'Gazprom fear' which makes it difficult for Gazprom to acquire assets, access markets and deal with European customers and partners. And as the prospects for a larger European and global gas market grow, Gazprom as the holder of the world's largest conventional gas resources could also be well placed to benefit. But to be successful in the new gas age, the company needs to undertake a fundamental reform of its business model and market priorities. If it fails to do this it risks ending up as a 'supplier of last resort' for Europe. Does President Putin really want to preside over the decline of Gazprom?

Europe must wean IEA from dependence on US

By Matthew Hulbert

European countries should firmly resist any move made by the US and G7 to release strategic oil reserves in the current situation. Such blatant interference in the market, which would clearly be made only for political (US electoral) purposes, would hurt the credibility of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and make a mockery of the IEA's ambition to become a truly global (rather than 'Western') organisation by extending its reach to China and India. In view of the US' renewed striving for ‘energy independence’, Europe has a vital interest in making the IEA’s global ambition work: the only way for Europe to reduce its dependence on Russia is to connect with China.

Secret Pentagon papers reveal pre-war plans to get Big Oil into Iraq

Greg Mutitt

Government officials meeting in the Pentagon before the Iraq War planned to use the U.S. occupation to open the country to Big Oil, according to new documents published today.

Arctic oil: Putin's last chance

By Matthew Hulbert

President Putin is back, but this time he faces daunting challenges on the energy front. The easy times throughout the 2000s when prices were rising, production was steady, and petro-dollars kept rolling in, are gone. Russia is facing steep depletion rates on key oil fields in East Siberia, the Far East and West Siberia, a dynamic that has already seen the country slip back to second place on the international roster of oil producers behind Saudi Arabia. The only chance Putin has to retain his long term global energy stake is successful exploitation of Russia's Arctic reserves, but that's going to need serious foreign investment. The good news for Putin is that international oil companies have welcomed the initial 'policy certainty' his return has brought to the Kremlin, but if Russia wants to attract serious amounts of foreign capital, Moscow also needs to display very long term consistency.

Four ways the present US administration is pursuing the energy geopolitics of the previous one

Is Barack Obama morphing into Dick Cheney?

By Michael T. Klare

As details of his administration's global war against terrorists, insurgents, and hostile warlords have become more widely known - a war that involves a mélange of drone attacks, covert operations, and presidentially selected assassinations - President Obama seems to be following more and more into the footsteps of his predecessor George W. Bush. When it comes to international energy politics, however, it is not Bush but his vice president, Dick Cheney, who has been providing the role model for the president, argues Michael Klare, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College.

The increasing threats to global energy supplies - an interview with Jellyfish

Jen Alic, Oilprice.com

As global energy supplies come under increasing attack by non-state actors and private energy holdings become key targets of political maneuverings and criminal activities, Oilprice.com discusses the nature of the growing threat and how to reverse the risk with "smart power."

The fragile foundations of the Russian oil sector

By Wojciech Konoñczuk

In 2011, oil production in Russia reached 511.3 million tonnes (10.26 million barrels per day), the highest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the highest in the world together with Saudi Arabia. Russia's declared goal in its oil policy is to maintain annual output at around 505 million tonnes over the next few years and increase it to 535 million tonnes by 2030. However, despite the fact that proven Russian oil reserves are still vast, and that Russia probably has very large undiscovered deposits, it will be practically impossible to achieve this goal. As a result of structural deficiencies in the market structure, a significant fall of Russian oil production is almost inevitable. The degree of the decline will depend on the actions the government takes in its fiscal policy and the investment climate in general. The opening of Arctic deposits for some Western oil majors, widely reported on recently, will not be a solution for the problems of the Russian oil sector.

Interview Urban Rusnák, Secretary-General of the Energy Charter

"The Energy Charter Treaty is entering a crucial phase"

By Karel Beckman

The next few years are crucial for the future of the Energy Charter Treaty. If it does not manage to expand its constituency and to adapt its rules to a changing world, it risks remaining a regional player in Eurasia, says Urban Rusnák, the new Secretary-General of the Energy Charter Secretariat, in an interview with EER. According to Rusnák, who started his job on the 1st of January this year, the Energy Charter Treaty is unique in that provides a legally binding set of rules for international energy investments. "At a time when the energy sector is faced with the need to invest huge amounts of capital, the Energy Charter Treaty is uniquely suited to reduce risk premiums and supply the framework for global energy governance that the world so badly needs."

Joint Ventures in the Russian Offshore – Positive News but only for the Long Term

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The increasing maturity of Russia’s onshore fields, especially those in West Siberia, and the potential for the country’s production to go into sharp decline over the next decade has prompted the Russian government to promote offshore development as a potential solution.

EU–Russia Gas Relations: How to Manage New Uncertainties and Imbalances

Ralf Dickel and Kirsten Westphal, SWP

EU–Russia gas relations are at a critical stage in 2012. Uncertainty is predominant: The balance between security of supply and security of demand is under threat and long-term business relations are under pressure from market developments and a new regulatory framework.

Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue?

International Crisis Group

Although newly discovered gas reserves off Cyprus are currently driving the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities further apart, they could offer both newfound wealth if, together with Turkey, they would agree to start a new dialogue about exploiting and transporting this find.

What history should teach us about blockading Iran

By Juan Cole and Tom Engelhardt

It's a policy fierce enough to cause great suffering among Iranians - and possibly in the long run among Americans, too. It might, in the end, even deeply harm the global economy and yet, history tells us, it will fail on its own. Economic war led by Washington (and encouraged by Israel) will not take down the Iranian government or bring it to the bargaining table on its knees ready to surrender its nuclear program. It might, however, lead to actual armed conflict with incalculable consequences.

China at the crossroads: are the reformers winning the argument?

European Council on Foreign Relations

China has reached a crossroads. After years of political stability and enviable economic growth, the regime has been facing a stark choice about how the country should move forward. But two crucial recent political events have turned Chinese politics on its head, and are forcing it to decide whether to regress or reform.

How the US policy shipwreck over Iran is undermining the credibility of Saudi Arabia and the IEA

Banking on Saudi-Parabia

By Matthew Hulbert

Lulled by dreams of energy independence, the US thought it could slap sanctions on Iran without having to pay a price at the pump. That has proven to be a miscalculation. Now, rather than abandoning its Iran policy, the US is relying on Saudi Arabia and the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) to bring down oil prices and prevent the world economy from going under. According to energy security specialist Matthew Hulbert, this is a highly risky policy which could seriously hurt the credibility of both Riyadh and Paris. He warns that "until the US ditches its energy independence myth and gets back to current reality, the Saudi-Parabia ship is going to struggle to make it to port over the next decade." The world is entering dangerous waters.

Why the IEA should resist a US strategic oil stock release now

By Matthew Hulbert

With Presidential elections approaching, and oil prices showing no signs of dropping, the temptation for the Obama Administration to release strategic oil stocks becomes ever greater. Such a move, for short-term electoral reasons, would seriously hurt the credibility of the oil emergency scheme of the International Energy Agency (IEA), argues Matthew Hulbert. "Asian consumption of Iranian oil is the only safety valve left from making the IEA look very silly."

Putin’s return: why Europe should prepare for a weaker Russia

European Council on Foreign Relations

On Sunday 4th March Russians have elected their next president. Although Vladimir Putin is certain to win, it will be a hollow victory and his next presidency will be weaker than before.

Why Saudi Arabia holds the key to a resolution of the Iranian crisis

By Matthew Hulbert

It is highly doubtful that the current Western sanctions policy towards Iran will bring about the desired result: to dissuade Iran from continuing on its nuclear course. The only peaceful way to solve the Iran crisis is by bringing Saudi Arabia and China into the equation. They are the only countries that can make an oil boycott work. But for this to happen, the Saudi's should start withholding oil from the market instead of making up for any Iranian shortfalls, as they are doing now.

Iran Sanctions: Right Intent, Wrong Approach

By Friedbert Pflüger

While the oil boycott the US and EU have instituted against Iran is understandable, in view of the repulsive nature of the Iranian regime, it will end up hurting the West rather than the rulers in Tehran, argues Friedbert Pflüger, Director of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) at King’s College London. According to Pflüger, the West should deal with Iran the way it dealt with the Soviet Union during the Cold War: with a policy of containment and cooperation, particularly in the energy sector. "While the dangers and malicious character of the ruling regime should not be watered down, stronger economic cooperation, like for instance the 'gas for pipes' deal in 1970 between Germany and Russia, should be pursued."

The Future of Russia: Modernization or Decline?

Adam Balcer and Nicolay Petrov

There is fresh socio-political ferment in the run-up to the presidential elections in Russia. The real challenge, however, is the uphill struggle that the country faces when it comes to its internal prospects and international position.

On Oil Embargos and the Myth of the Iranian Oil Weapon

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The exchange of threats between Iran and the West vis-à-vis Iranian oil exports to European and other consumer countries has received wide attention among policy makers and analysts; IMF officials predict that crude oil prices could increase by as much as 30 percent in case of a halt of Iran's exports to OECD countries, and if other sources don’t offset the loss of Iranian crude oil.

Hormuz-Mania: Why Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Could Ignite a War and a Global Depression

Michael T. Klare

Ever since December 27th, war clouds have been gathering over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and the seas beyond. On that day, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that Tehran would block the strait and create havoc in international oil markets if the West placed new economic sanctions on his country.

Following the petrodollar in the Persian Gulf crisis

The Myth of Isolated Iran

By Pepe Escobar, Introduction by Tom Engelhardt

The US has framed the question of Iranian sanctions as being about the threat of an Iranian atom bomb. In reality, argues Asia Times correspondent Pepe Escobar, it is about oil, the struggle with China for Asian dominance and the future of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. And although the US claims Iran is "isolated", writes Escobar, this is only true from a western perspective. Tom Engelhardt, author, editor and creator of the website www.tomdispatch.com, introduces Escobar's story with some historical background information on the growing crisis in the Gulf.

The Vital Relationship: Why Russia needs Qatar (and Qatar could use Russia)

By Matthew Hulbert

The European gas market is undergoing a profound change. Spot trade is rapidly gaining importance, with lower-priced spot supplies increasingly undermining the long-term, primarily Russian contracts that have traditionally dominated the market. With Gazprom's main buyers losing market share, it seems only a question of time before the Russians are forced to adjust their pricing policies and adapt to the liberalised European market. There is one way out for the Russians, though, argues energy security specialist Matthew Hulbert: to strike some deal with their main rival Qatar. In this article, Matthew sketches various scenarios under which such a Russian-Qatari cooperation in the gas market could develop - and what this could mean for Europe.

Danger Waters: The Three Top Hot Spots of Potential Conflict in the Geo-Energy Era

Michael T. Klare

Welcome to an edgy world where a single incident at an energy “chokepoint” could set a region aflame, provoking bloody encounters, boosting oil prices, and putting the global economy at risk. With energy demand on the rise and sources of supply dwindling, we are, in fact, entering a new epoch -- the Geo-Energy Era -- in which disputes over vital resources will dominate world affairs. In 2012 and beyond, energy and conflict will be bound ever more tightly together, lending increasing importance to the key geographical flashpoints in our resource-constrained world.

Who will win the first leg of the pipeline race in South East Europe?

The Southern Gas Corridor: Reaching the Home Stretch

By Friedbert Pflüger

After many years of speculation about possible gas pipelines to be built in the so-called Southern Corridor, a first likely winner will be announced shortly. It probably won't be the EU-backed Nabucco nor the Russian-backed South Stream, but the much less ambitious Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), owned by Eon, Statoil and EGL. This is the prediction of Friedbert Pflüger, Director of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) at King's College London. In this article written for EER, Pflüger, who served for twenty years as a Member of Parliament and was State Secretary in the first Merkel government, explains why the Southern Gas Corridor is crucial to Europe's energy future and how it is likely to develop.

Algeria is at risk without EU-backed reform

European Council on Foreign Relations

While Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have been convulsed by uprisings and conflict, Algeria has remained calm. But if upheaval does spread to Algeria this will further destabilise the region and harm Europe’s interests on issues of energy, security and migration.

It's energy that will make or break the BRICs

By Matthew Hulbert

The future of the world economy (including the global energy market) depends increasingly on how the partnership of the BRIC countries will develop. Of course Brazil, Russia, India and China hardly form a natural 'bloc', yet the BRIC acronym has acted to some extent as a self-fulfilling prophecy, corralling the four emerging economies into an uneasy alliance. But how far this partnership can go, depends more than anything else on the energy relations between the four countries, argues Matthew Hulbert. It is ultimately how they will play out their energy interests that will come to define - or destroy - BRIC relations.

Obama's risky oil threat to China

Playing with fire

By Michael T. Klare

When it comes to China policy, is the Obama administration leaping from the frying pan directly into the fire? In an attempt to turn the page on two disastrous wars in the Greater Middle East, it may have just launched a new Cold War in Asia – once again, viewing oil as the key to global supremacy.

New stability and prospects for Kurdish oil and gas

By Friedbert Pflüger and Arash Duero

ExxonMobil has become the world's first major international oil company to venture into Iraqi Kurdistan. ExxonMobil's bold move may be seen as a validation of investor confidence in Iraqi Kurdistan's economic progress. It may even signify that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is inching closer to reaching an agreement with the central government in Baghdad on the long-standing dispute over the ownership and revenue sharing of the region's hydrocarbon resources. It is high time for European policymakers and businesses to start engaging themselves with Iraqi Kurdistan - as the US, Turkey, Japan and Korea are already doing.

Together Alone: BASIC countries and the climate change conundrum

Nordic Council of Ministers

Since 2009, Brazil, South Africa, India and China – known as the BASIC group of countries – have cooperated in international climate negotiations, reflecting their aspiration to have a larger say in global politics. But there are some who claim that the approach of the bloc has obstructed progress in the talks.

Domestic Gas Prices in Russia – Towards Export Netback?

James Henderson, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

This paper, by James Henderson, concludes that Russian domestic gas prices are not likely to reach European netback levels any time soon, but that the momentum of the past five years towards significantly higher domestic prices will continue, leading to an eventual liberalization of the Russian gas market. Over the next decade, this could create fundamental changes in Russia’s relationship with European gas markets with potential competition for available supplies between domestic and European export markets.

Europe needs one voice on energy - and one pair of ears

By Adnan Vatansever

Europe is increasingly trying to to speak with one voice on energy, in particular towards its principal supplier - Russia. The question for Brussels is how to shape Europe's external energy policy without exposing otherwise mutually beneficial energy relations with Russia to new risks.

Russia and Europe: Time to bury the hatchet - and embrace the market

By Friedbert Pflüger

In the current economic climate, strong energy ties between Russia and Europe could be beneficial to both sides. But an intensive energy relationship can only work if it is based on equality, argues Professor Dr. Friedbert Pflüger, Director of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) at King's College London, and former State Secretary in the first Merkel government. The EU should make it clear that it will not discourage Russian pipeline and downstream investments in the European market - if Russia makes it clear it is willing to play by the European rules.

BP drives stake through the Southern Corridor

By Matthew Hulbert

Just when Moscow thought it had sealed the Southern corridor through the nascent South Stream pipeline, BP has thrown a serious spanner in the works. For Brussels, BP's plan to build its own pipeline from Azerbaijan might even be more upsetting.

Nord Stream: Neue Sorgen for Europe

By Matthew Hulbert

With Nord Stream coming online, South Stream proceeding smoothly and the main German Nabucco-supporter RWE being driven into the arms of Gazprom by Germany's nuclear policy, the geopolitical gas power play in Europe is going Moscow's way. When will European countries wake up to the dangerous situation they are creating for themselves, wonders Matthew Hulbert?

How Washington Creates Global Instability

By Nick Turse

It was built for... well, not to put too fine a point on it, victory. I’m talking, of course, about the ill-named Camp Victory, the massive military complex, a set of bases really, constructed around an old hunting lodge and nine of former dictator Saddam Hussein’s opulent palaces near Baghdad International Airport.

There's still hope for Exxon's rivals in the Russian Arctic

By Matthew Hulbert

The Rosneft-ExxonMobil deal looks sensational at first sight, but the actual commitments from the two companies are still quite small. Both sides look to be hedging their bets. Which means Exxon's rivals can still hope to become part of Russia's Arctic future.

Gazprom: back in the game - and ready to take on Brussels

By Rudolf ten Hoedt

Russia’s Gazprom is aggressively expanding its presence in Europe by building new pipelines and buying up gas storage capacity. After a difficult period, the Russian gas company is oozing confidence and convinced it can further conquer the European market. And it is challenging the European Commission in the process. ‘The gas industry has been too shy with politicians and regulators,’ Gazprom vice-president Alexander Medvedev recently said in Austria.

The Strategic Implications of Russia's Eastern Oil Resources

Oxford Institute of Energy Studies

Russian oil exports have historically been focused on western markets but the rapid growth of the Asia-Pacific economies over the past two decades has led to a re-focusing of Russia's strategic and energy interests.

Algeria's shifting gas export strategy: between policy and market constraints

Oxford Institute of Energy Studies

This paper by Hakim Darbouche analyses the main drivers of Algeria's gas export strategy since the early 2000s. It argues that after suffering a series of setbacks owing to the policy inconsistencies of the administration of former energy minister Chakib Khelil Algeria's gas export strategy now faces a number of constraints as a result of changing market conditions.

Vulnerability and Bargaining Power in EU-Russia Gas Relations

Edward C. Christie

This report contains three separate papers, each addressing selected issues concerning natural gas policy and security of gas supply in Europe.

The risks of a Russian-Turkish energy bargain

By Adnan Vatansever

Nearly two years after Russia and Turkey signed a series of energy cooperation protocols, the two countries remain unable to reach a breakthrough in their energy relations. Negotiations are deadlocked on two principal projects: the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the South Stream gas pipeline. The ongoing deadlock, while leading to frustrations, can and probably will be solved. But if the two countries come to a bargain that ignores the wider interests of all stakeholders, they may have to pay a steep price.

Overseas activities of China's oil companies demystified

International Energy Agency

New research published today by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights inaccuracies in some commonly held views of China's National Oil Companies (NOCs).

Burgas-Alexandroupolis - death of a great pipeline project?

By Theodore Tsakiris

Chancers are that the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline project, intended to give Russia a new outlet for its oil exports, avoiding the busy Bosporus Strait, will be scrapped. The main reason is procrastination from the new Bulgarian government. The Russian partners have now given the Bulgarian government until 20 March to pay their dues, which are in arrears. Theodoros Tsakiris, the Director of EKEM’s Observatory for European Energy Policy in Athens, explains what is behind the bickering around the Trans Balkan Pipeline.

Interview Marcel Kramer, CEO South Stream

‘It is the market that will decide whether South Stream will be built’

By Karel Beckman

In the EU many people believe that the planned South Stream pipeline is a political project by means of which Russia is trying to keep Europe dependent on Russian gas. According to Marcel Kramer, the Dutch CEO of the South Stream consortium, this notion is demonstrably at odds with the facts. In an interview with EER, he points out that most of the gas that will flow through South Stream, is currently flowing through Ukraine to Europe, so the new pipeline will not significantly enhance Russia’s market share. All it will do, Kramer says, is make Russian supplies more secure by providing a new route from Russia to Europe. ‘South Stream is an economic project. It is the market that will decide whether it will be built.’

The Rush to Russia

By Matthew Hulbert

The significance of the BP-Rosneft deal has not been sufficiently appreciated by mainstream media, argues energy analyst Matthew Hulbert. According to Hulbert, the agreement signals the start of a new M&A frenzy in the upstream sector, as international oil companies (IOC’s) are rapidly stepping up their attempts to realise joint-ventures with national oil companies (NOC’s). This rush to Russia and other resource-rich countries, he notes, is the direct result of the “Macondo” oil spill. ‘The disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has turned traditional notions of political risk on their head. Ironically, Russia is now deemed a safer and potentially more rewarding bet than a politically capricious country like the US.’

A Russian Solution to Europe’s Energy Problem

By Adnan Vatansever

Russia’s supply of natural gas could hold the answer to Europe’s great energy challenge: to reduce its carbon emissions in the midst of a financial crisis. But a successful partnership between Russia and Europe will require greater mutual trust. One way to achieve this is for the two sides to expand the level of investment in each other’s gas sectors.

The growing role of Turkey in the EU’s security of energy supply

By Yusuf Yazar, Deputy Undersecretary, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey

Turkey is dedicated to playing a driving and constructive role in the timely, reliable, cost-effective and environmentally responsible transportation of Caspian, Middle Eastern and Central Asian hydrocarbon resources to European and world markets. To this end Turkey is doing all it can to develop new projects which will enhance its own energy security and those of its partner countries, as well as to bolster prosperity and peace in the region and the world. In this context, Turkey’s accession process to the EU is of great significance. With its dynamic energy market, its rapidly modernizing energy infrastructure, its developed regulatory framework and unique geographical location, Turkey as a EU member could contribute significantly to the energy security of the EU and Europe as a whole.

Crusade 2.0 - the lies of Islamophobia

John Feffer

The Muslims were bloodthirsty and treacherous. They conducted a sneak attack against the French army and slaughtered every single soldier, 20,000 in all. More than 1,000 years ago, in the mountain passes of Spain, the Muslim horde cut down the finest soldiers in Charlemagne’s command, including his brave nephew Roland. Then, according to the famous poem that immortalized the tragedy, Charlemagne exacted his revenge by routing the entire Muslim army.

Interview: Azerbaijan’s top negotiator Elshad Nassirov

‘We do not want to depend on only one pipeline’

By Rudolf ten Hoedt

‘We do not consider the idea of Nabucco merely transporting our gas from Baku to Baumgarten. We demand from the Nabucco consortium access to the nearby markets as well.’ In an exclusive interview with EER in Baku, Azerbaijan’s top negotiator Elshad Nassirov, sets out quite clearly what his country wants in return for supplying the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline with gas: not just competitive tariffs, but access to downstream markets as well. Azerbaijan is Europe’s main hope to source gas from the Caspian region and reduce its dependency on Russia. Its huge gas reserves could easily fill one or more of the competing projected pipelines through Turkey to the EU. The country is willing to supply Europe, but the question is with how much and under what conditions. As Elshad Nassirov, Vice-President of national energy company Socar, tells EER’s reporter Rudolf ten Hoedt in his office in Baku, Azerbaijan’s main concerns are revenues and independence. Azerbaijan does not want to supply more than 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually to the 31 bcm Nabucco pipeline, and only against very sharp tariffs and conditions. ‘We are not going to pay for the empty capacity of Nabucco’, says Nassirov. Azerbaijan wants to keep all doors open to alternative sources of transportation. ‘We will not put all our eggs in one basket, however attractive and beautiful it may seem.’

‘There is a total lack of competition in the regional gas market’

By Jeroen Bult

Estonia, the smallest of the Baltic States, is striving after diversification of its energy resources to reduce dependence on its mighty neighbour, the Russian Federation. Estonia has found a welcome ally in the European Commission, but it is also facing obstacles to its energy policy, notes Einari Kisel, the Deputy Secretary General of Energy of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, in an interview with EER. Kisel, who is generally regarded as Estonia’s leading energy expert, specifically notes the ‘total lack of competition on the regional gas market’ and ‘the lack of reciprocity between the EU and Russia’. These aspects ‘have a major impact on the operations of the energy markets and on the security of energy supply in the Baltic region’, he says. About the nuclear power plant that Russia apparently intends to build in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, he says that the project is ‘aimed at creating confusion’ among western investors who are considering investing in a new nuclear power plant in Lithuania.

From Stockholm to Sofia, Europe is sleepwalking its way into far greater dependency on Russian gas

By Matthew Hulbert

Having been on the road of late at various energy bashes, it was fascinating to get closer insights into how “opposite poles” on the European map see energy security playing out, namely in Stockholm and Sofia. Both capitals are key players in the future pipeline complexion of Europe. Nord Stream = up North in Scandinavia and the Southern corridor = down South in South East Europe.

Russia takes another step away from Burgas-Alexandroupolis as Bulgarian procrastination continues

Theodoros Tsakiris

On 30 September, Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky told RIA Novosti that Moscow has offered Turkey a Draft Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) regarding the participation of Russian companies in the 1-1.5 mbpd Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline project. The Russian proposal constitutes the strongest signal up to this point that Russia is seriously considering TAPCO as an alternative to Burgas-Alexandroupolis.

Shah Deniz: King of the Sea

By Ramiz Mammadov

Shah Deniz translates from Azeri as “King of the Sea” and it really is the king of Caspian region, being the 9th largest gas field in the world with reserves of around 1.2 trillion cubic meters. The “King” is situated in the South of the Caspian Sea, off the Azerbaijan shore, approximately 70 km south-east of Baku, the capital of the Azerbaijan Republic. It is being operated since the end of 2006 through a production sharing agreement (PSA) ratified in 1996 by a consortium of companies consisting of lead operator BP (25.25%), Statoil (25.5%), Socar (the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan), Lukoil of Russia, Total of France, NICO of Iran (10% each) and TPAO of Turkey (9%).

China’s Pipelineistan “War” - Anteing Up, Betting, and Bluffing in the New Great Game

Pepe Escobar

Future historians may well agree that the twenty-first century Silk Road first opened for business on December 14, 2009.  That was the day a crucial stretch of pipeline officially went into operation linking the fabulously energy-rich state of Turkmenistan (via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) to Xinjiang Province in China’s far west. Hyperbole did not deter the spectacularly named Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Turkmenistan’s president, from bragging, “This project has not only commercial or economic value. It is also political. China, through its wise and farsighted policy, has become one of the key guarantors of global security.”

China’s future troubles

By Matthew Hulbert

No political risk appears to be too high for China in its quest for energy and commodities. The Chinese seem to thrive on political instability, much to the chagrin of western governments and multinationals. But what might look appealing to Beijing in the short term, could become a big headache in the long run. Ultimately China depends just as much on political stability as everyone else.

The Role of Investment Protection in EU-Russia Relations

ECIPE - 05/10/2010

Russia’s model for investment policy is unsustainable, argue Fredrik Erixon and Iana Dreyer in a new paper. It has for long been clear that Russia arbitrary and Kremlinbased approach to investment protection has been damaging the prospects for Russia’s industrial sector to attract foreign investments. But now it is increasingly clear that the old model does not deliver gains to the Kremlin and oligarchs in the way it did in the past. Russia now needs to reform its investment policy, and the European Union should be a key partner in this task, e.g. through a new investment treaty.

China: the 21st century energy superpower

By Michael T. Klare

If you want to know which way the global wind is blowing (or the sun shining or the coal burning), watch China. That’s the news for our energy future and for the future of great-power politics on planet Earth. Washington is already watching - with anxiety.

Russian Arbitrage: pipedream or Eastern Promise?

By Matthew Hulbert

Things are looking up for Russia. Prime Minister Putin finally opened a new pipeline exporting east Siberian oil to the Chinese mainland. Dubbed the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) link, the plan is to pump 1.6 million barrels per day towards the Pacific Ocean over the next few years. The rationale is clear. Diversifying supplies to Asia offers Russia what all energy producers want: leverage over competing consumers in the East and West. Keep Asia keen, treat Europe mean. Cash in on the premium.

The Russian gas price reform and its impact on Russian gas consumption

Edward Hunter Christie

This article provides quantitative assessments of the impact of Russia's ongoing reform of domestic natural gas prices on the country's consumption of natural gas. The base assumption is that Russia could go through an adaptation process analogous to what occurred in more advanced transition countries. Empirical gas demand models are thus estimated for the transition countries of Central Europe for the period 1992-2006.

South Stream steals a march on Nabucco

By Kash Burchett, Datamonitor

Until recently, Europe’s booming demand for gas and its limited reserves made it plausible to argue that the Russian-backed South Stream gas pipeline and the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline could both be viable. However, now that the recession and diluted environmental commitments have reduced demand and the unconventional gas revolution has increased supply, the competition between the two projected pipelines has become a zero-sum game. Nabucco and South Stream have become engaged in a ‘winner-takes-all’ contest to supply Europe with gas. And recent developments suggest South Stream may have stolen a march on Nabucco.

Navigating between Nabucco and South Stream

By Ramiz Mammadov

Italian energy giant ENI has come up with a proposal to transport gas in the form of CNG (compressed natural gas) by ships across the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. This looks like a clever move to facilitate both the EU-backed pipeline and its Russian-backed competitor South Stream, in which ENI has a stake.

BP’s future may be decided in Russia

by Matthew Hulbert

As BP CEO Tony Hayward clears his desk from St. James’s Square in London, Robert Dudley is getting ready to take his place, effective Oct. 1. The rationale is clear: BP wants an American to take care of its U.S. assets. But in the end, this could prove to be misguided. BP is a global player, not just a Gulf of Mexico upstart.

Algerian gas – still a key part of southern Europe's energy mix

by David Drury

As a reliable supplier of natural gas – on which some Southern European countries, particularly Spain and Italy, have grown heavily dependent – Algeria has a long-established position as Europe’s second largest external supplier of natural gas. But there have been some dramatic events in Algeria in the last few months. The sacking of long time energy minister Chakib Khelil and the dismissal of the Sonatrach CEO and several top managers of the national company on corruption allegations coincide with an aggressively pursued export programme now carried out at a time that European markets are awash with natural gas. Furthermore, Algeria continues to find it difficult to interest foreign investors in some of Algeria’s new prospective regions. Algeria’s new energy minister, Youcef Yousfi will have his work cut out not only in housecleaning at Sonatrach in the wake of the corruption scandal, but also in ensuring future gas supplies and defining a new Algerian energy policy.

Will Venezuelans be eating more rice or borscht or both in the future?

by Kevin Rosner

Venezuelan threats to cut off oil exports destined primarily to US refineries, in response to a row which erupted last week between Columbia and that country, may end up backfiring on this South American petro-dictator.

EU must take action to secure Caspian oil

by Ramiz Mammadov

The two national companies of Kazachstan and Azerbaijan – KazMunayGas (KMG) and State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) – have signed several agreements to create a legal and commercial basis for the Trans-Caspian Project, also known as the Trans-Caspian Oil Transportation System (TCOTS). The latest step forward was announced early in June when a pre-qualification round was started for feasibility studies. The TCOTS is important as a major new source of oil supplies in Europe. It has strong backing of the major oil companies, including European companies, operating in the Caspian region and it is backed by the governments of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. What is lacking so far, however, is clear support from the EU and the US. This makes it possible for Russia and Iran to undermine the project. High time for Brussels to take action.

The April 2010 Russo-Ukrainian gas agreement and its implications for Europe

by Jonathan Stern, Katja Yafimava and Simon Pirani, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

This study by Jonathan Stern, Katja Yafimava and Simon Pirani reviews the gas agreements made between Russia and Ukraine this year. The authors warn that while prospects for a new Russo-Ukrainian “gas war” have receded in the short term fault lines remain in the agreements that could cause problems in future – which is of concern to a European market dealing this week with the latest Russo-Belarussian dispute.

Letter to the Editor

Sir,

In his article “Gazprom in crisis: a chance for reform”, Anders Åslund makes a number of allegations to which I would like to respond.

No one can deny that 2009 was as testing year for Gazprom as for all other energy majors: starting with a transit crisis that cost us $100 million per day for over two weeks, it went on to see global demand for natural gas decline due to an unprecedented financial and economic crisis. Yearly sales volumes decreased in all markets: -8.8% for the EU, -13% for former Soviet Union states, -6% in Russia. But this is the only aspect of Mr. Åslund’s view with which I can agree - or which has a solid evidence base.

EU policy drives Turkey in the arms of Russia

by Yurdakul Yiðitgüden

The European Union’s attempts to turn Turkey into an energy corridor to reduce its dependence on Russian imports has only been partially successful. The main problem is that the EU takes insufficient account of what drives Turkish external energy policy. If Brussels and the European countries continue on this road, the Turks are likely to deepen their already close energy relationships with Russia, frustrating Europe’s attempt at diversification, warns Yurdakul Yiðitgüden, a former Turkish Under-Secretary of Energy and Natural Resources .

Why Nigeria matters (a lot)

by Chris Cragg

In addition to the crisis in Greece and the fear that Portugal and Spain may be the next to see their treasury bonds reduced to junk status, the world may soon be facing a further worrying rise in dollar-denominated oil prices. One not-to-be-underestimated factor that may push oil prices up is the threat of renewed instability in Nigeria, as the major guerrilla group in the Niger Delta, MEND, looks to be moving back into action after a long ceasefire. After the sudden of president Yar’Adua last week, his successor, Goodluck Jonathan, will be faced with the formidable task of convincing the rebels to lay down their arms and leave the oil industry alone.

Russia making new push in Caspian Basin energy sector

by Sergei Blagov, Eurasianet

Russian leaders are hoping that the launch of the country’s first major Caspian Sea off-shore energy development project will re-invigorate the Kremlin’s overall oil-and-gas strategy for the region.

Chinese-Central Asian relationship requires delicate balancing act

by Bruce Pannier, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

It would appear to be a match made in heaven. China, in order to fuel its economic ambitions, has moved quickly to snatch up Central Asian resources. Central Asia, looking to upgrade its aging infrastructure, has increasingly opened itself up to Chinese investment.

Gaspec: too soon to start cheering

by Matthew Hulbert

Now that the dust has started to settle, not only from Icelandic volcanoes, but also from the latest Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) meeting held in Oran, Algeria in mid-April, it has become clear that the outcome of the Forum was far from explosive. In fact, it barely failed to register on the ‘Richter scale’ as far as global gas markets were concerned. Gas production is not to be clipped any time soon, and plans to expand oil-indexation of gas contracts did not go beyond the rhetorical level. Gas remains a buyer’s market. Yet, this is no time for complacency on the side of consumers. Tightening the screw too hard might well lead to a price volcano outburst in the future.

Barents Sea deal enhances EU security of supply – a bit

By our editor

Russian president Dimitri Medvedev and Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday signed a surprise pact in Oslo on Tuesday April 27 to amicably divide oil and gas interests across a long-disputed Cold War border in the Barents Sea. The agreement may make it possible for Norway to postpone the much-feared decline of its oil production for several decades. Norwegian gas production too might be boosted. In the long term this may be good news for the EU’s security of supply situation. However, a quick “energy bonanza” is not on the cards.

An assessment of current challenges and new opportunities for cooperation

U.S. strategic interests in the Arctic

by Heather A. Conley and Jamie Kraut, Centre for Strategic and International Studies

During the height of the Cold War, the Arctic region was considered a geostrategic and geopolitical playground for the United States and the Soviet Union, as strategic bombers and nuclear submarines crossed over and raced below the polar cap. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the region diminished in strategic importance to the United States. Now, 20 years later, senior U.S. military and diplomatic officials have turned their attention once again to the Arctic but in a far different way than during the Cold War.

Gazprom in crisis: a chance for reform

by Anders Åslund

The economic crisis and the collapse of gas prices have shown Russian gas giant Gazprom for what it is: a bloated and wasteful bureaucratic monster, which is hurting both the Russian and the EU economy. Gazprom needs to downsize, tighten its belts and reform – and there never was a better time to do it than now. What is more, the EU should help out, and offer Russia a new legal framework for energy cooperation to replace the Energy Charter.

Wanted: Russian resolve on oil strategy

by Rik Komduur

To retain its oil production levels, Russia will need to make substantial changes in its oil policies and oil industry. Current production areas will have to be modernised and large investments will have to be made in new production areas in faraway places. Foreign and domestic private investments and technology seem indispensable to make this happen, but Russia has chased away private investors with heavy taxes and nationalisations. Now the Russian government has to make up its mind: will it allow the market to work – or will it take oil production into its own hands? As one expert puts it: ‘We need clarity. We can’t have this mixed policy which is leading us nowhere.’

Change is in the air

by Stefan Schroeter

Russia seems to be ready for more international cooperation in the energy sector. The Russian government is considering easing legal hurdles for foreign companies wanting to invest in the Russian energy sector. It also wants to attract foreign investment in sustainable energy and energy efficiency projects. And it is preparing a ‘Global Energy Code’ after rejecting the Energy Charter Treaty. ‘The plan is to create global production and technology chains in the supply of Russian energy resources.’

Europe’s gas: careful what you wish for

by Matthew Hulbert

European energy security was getting a bit dull. Not now. The global gas glut has seen some of Europe’s biggest energy players turning the contractual tables on Gazprom to slowly start breaking up oil indexation on gas prices. Eni, E.On and Gdf-Suez are the leaders in the pack, securing up to 15% of sales to be linked to gas spot prices. In ball park terms, this is around 25% cheaper than oil linked contracts based on current benchmark prices.

A gas cartel looms

by Alex Forbes

After years of its members insisting that the Gas Exporting Countries Forum is anything but a cartel, the organisation appears to be on its way to becoming precisely that. How worried should consuming countries in Europe be? Not too worried – yet.

Russia-Europe energy relations: Implications for U.S. Policy

by Keith C. Smith

In this report, the author argues that the national security risks posed by Russian energy policies are only tangentially related to Europe’s dependency on Russian energy imports. The primary energy risk to Europe, and especially to the newer EU members, stems from the corrosive effect this dependency has on governance and on transatlantic cooperation.

Gazprom is the essence of the energy curse

Anders Åslund

Gazprom is Russia’s leading company, but few enterprises have been as badly beaten during the global financial crisis. The Russian economy has recovered as the crisis has abated, but Gazprom may suffer from a profound structural crisis. It needs to downsize, cut waste and reform.

Baltic Rim Economies 1/2010

Pan-European Institute

The Pan-European Institute publishes a bimonthly discussion forum, Baltic Rim Economies (BRE), which focuses on the development of the Baltic Sea Region. In BRE, high-level public and corporate decision makers, representatives of Academia and several other experts contribute to the discussion.

Interview Björn Tore Godal ‘We should see developments in the Arctic as a positive possiblity’

by Reiner Gatermann

The environmental protection of the Arctic should not exclude its economic development, says Björn Tore Godal, Special Adviser for Energy and Climate Issues in the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  Godal, one of Norway’s highest ranked and respected politicians and diplomats, who served as Minister in the Norwegian government three times during his career, looks upon developments in the Arctic as ‘a long-term positive possibility’. ‘It’s a positive effect of climate change, amidst many negative effects, that new seaways may be opened up.’

No scramble for the Arctic - yet

by Reiner Gatermann

If the ice in the Arctic melts, a new ocean five times the size of the Mediterranean will be formed, potentially providing access to huge fossil fuel resources. But oil companies are not rushing to the North Pole yet. It will be decades before there can be any question of tapping the region’s oil and gas – if it happens at all.

The Turkish-Iranian gas relationship: Politically successful, commercially problematic

Elin Kinnander, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Iran-Turkey gas trade is the only large scale operating pipeline gas export to Europe from the Caspian and Middle East region. Given the interest in developing much larger pipeline exports to Europe from this region it is therefore of considerable importance.

Disaster in the making?

by Jeroen Ketting

August is a month notorious in Russia as a disaster month. The 1991 hard-line Stalinist coup, the 1998 financial meltdown, the 2000 sinking of the Kursk submarine, various suicide bombings, plane crashes and other disasters all happened in the month of August.

The riddle of Turkmenistan’s gas reserves

by Andrej Tibold

According to the latest edition of the respectable BP Statistical Review of Energy, Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves. But can these figures be trusted? After President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov fired all the leading executives in Turkmenistan’s oil and gas industry in October, doubts have mounted.

The impact of the economic crisis on Russian and CIS gas markets

Simon Pirani, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Simon Pirani's study updates the outlook for CIS gas markets in the wake of the global recession which has reduced demand throughout the region. Recovery of gas demand in both CIS and European markets is likely to be slow and this has already impacted on production exports and investment.

Energy and geopolitics in China: Mixing oil and politics

Robert E. Ebel, CSIS

The world was surprised when China emerged in 2004 as a major importer and consumer of oil. Today, that surprise has been replaced by growing concern that the China of tomorrow may be in a position to challenge the United States not only for economic leadership but for political leadership as well.

Europe’s gas dilemma

By Matthew Hulbert and Valentin Misteli for ISN Security Watch

Reduced European gas demand recently outlined by the IEA should normally equate to greater levels of ‘energy security’. Matthew Hulbert and Valentin Misteli explain for ISN Security Watch why this might not be the case should Europe’s ‘demand security’ credentials come into question.

Northern Europe greenlights Nord Stream

Oleg Mityayev - RIA Novosti

November 5 was a major milestone in Nord Stream AG history. Both Sweden and Finland authorized the construction of this seabed gas pipeline in their waters.

There are now no serious obstacles in meeting the deadline to bring the pipeline on line by 2011. The plans to diversify Russia's gas supplies to Europe are beginning to take shape.

Future gas production in Russia: is the concern about lack of investment justified?

Jonathan Stern, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The author shows that the short term outlook for Russia gas supply which has emerged since late 2008 has radically changed due to the global recession and reduced levels of gas demand in Russia CIS countries and Europe. Concern about Gazprom's ability to deliver volumes contracted to European buyers has been replaced by the latter asking for relief from their contractual obligations to take these volumes. For this reason the decision to delay investments in new production is entirely logical.

Azerbaijan could scuttle Nabucco over Turkey-Armenia deal

By Brian Whitmore, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Azerbaijan has apparently decided to play its energy card. As much of the world applauded Turkey's historic rapprochement with Armenia last week, Azerbaijan felt left out in the cold and abandoned by its closest ally. Baku had argued strenuously that a deal to reestablish relations between Ankara and Yerevan should not be signed while Armenia continued to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh, and it threatened to take unspecified countermeasures if one was.

Iran’s gas export ambitions:

by Alex Forbes

still hazy after all these years

Stand on the beach at Assaluyeh in western Iran and look out to sea to the south-west. Roughly 100 km out lies South Pars, Iran’s portion of the world’s largest non-associated gas fi eld. Shared with Qatar, which calls its portion the North Field, this immense geological structure holds over half of Iran’s 27,000 bcm (billion cubic metres) of proved gas reserves – more than any country in the world except Russia. With gas riches like these, it is no surprise that Iran has long harboured ambitions to become one of the world’s major exporters.

Iran’s clenched fist crushes energy hopes

by Alex Forbes

Even before Iran’s presidential election, its oil and gas industries were struggling to meet the nation’s energy needs and export aspirations. Following what some see as a thinly-veiled military coup, the outlook looks even bleaker – not just for the Iranian people, but for the global energy economy.

The heat is on

by Rudolf ten Hoedt

In Kazakhstan, western oil majors managed to gain hold of some of the world’s largest oil and gas fields. But the Kazakh government is taking back what it says belongs to them. EER talked to Maksat Idenov, vice-president of KazMunayGaz: ‘We want a fair deal and equal treatment so we can create income for our country.’

Kazakhstan wants to break free

by Rudolf ten Hoedt

Kazakhstan is eager to create a new route for oil to Europe that bypasses Russia and thereby finally break the Kremlin’s stranglehold on Kazakh oil transport. In natural gas, however, the Kazakhs remain closely tied to the Russian bear. A report from Atyrau.

Prison exchange: Mikhail Khodorkovsky looks back on his choices

Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

RFE/RL's Russian Service, together with "Novaya Gazeta" newspaper, recently published excerpts from correspondence between Russian novelist Lyudmila Ulitskaya and imprisoned former Yukos chief executive Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2008-09. What follows are passages from an extended translation of some of those exchanges.

Book Release:
How Ukraine became a market economy and democracy

By Anders Åslund

One of Europe's old nations steeped in history, Ukraine is today an undisputed independent state. It is a democracy and has transformed into a market economy with predominant private ownership. Ukraine's postcommunist transition has been one of the most protracted and socially costly, but it has taken the country to a desirable destination.

Nord Stream: Not Just a Pipeline

Bendik Solum Whist, ISN International Relations and Security Network

An Analysis of the Political Debates in the Baltic Sea Region Regarding the Planned Gas Pipeline from Russia to Germany.

This report is an analysis of the planned gas pipeline from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea known as Nord Stream. The author examines the divergent attitudes and debates that have surged in the region regarding Nord Stream, with the aim to provide plausible explanations as to why the interpretations of the project have been so different in the various states.

Thirst for African Oil: Asian National Oil Companies in Nigeria and Angola

Chatham House, Alex Vines, Lillian Wong, Markus Weimer and Indira Campos

The report provides a comparative study of the impact of Asian companies on the two leading oil producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria and Angola.

The report shows that Asian companies that gained a foothold in the Nigerian oil sector in return for their commitments to invest in downstream and infrastructure projects failed to understand the political context of the time.

Gambling in Sub-Saharan Africa: energy security through the prism of Sino-African relations

By Bas Percival, Benjamin Valk and Lucia van Geuns, Clingendael International Energy Programme

China has used its perceived 'blank slate' non-Colonial status to drive its expansion into Africa. Total trade between Africa and China amounted to approximately $73 billion in 2007, compared to a total of $4.8 billion in 1998 (a remarkable 1,277% increase), with oil accounting for 80% of this trade, demonstrating just how successful China has been in its endeavour.

The geopolitics of Russian energy
Looking back, looking forward

By Robert E. Ebel, Centre for Strategic and International Studies

Russia is a major player in both oil and gas exports, and much of the country's current and likely future economic growth is based on the income these exports will generate, particularly when high market prices prevail. When prices and demand decline drastically as they have recently, dependence on export income becomes a burden. Russia knows that oil and gas revenues cannot and should not form the sole foundation for its growth in the coming years, but if not oil and gas, then what?

The price band and oil price dynamics

By By Bassam Fattouh and Christopher Allsopp, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The proposal for a crude oil price band seems to be gathering support. This comment discusses some of the limitations of an oil price band then it proposes a new framework for understanding the recent dynamics of oil price movements based on feedbacks. Rather than aiming at stabilising spot prices within a band the comment argues that the main objective of both oil importing and exporting governments should be to stabilise market participants' long term expectations. This requires a move away from focusing solely on the role of speculation and transparency issues towards a more general framework that also takes into account the inflexibilities in the oil market.

The changing relationship between NOCs and IOCs in the LNG chain

David Ledesma, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Both the LNG business and IOC/NOC relationships have changed significantly over the past two decades and change is likely to continue. David Ledesma concludes that it is unlikely that the dominance which IOCs enjoyed in the LNG during the 1980s and 1990s will return. New players are offering NOCs access to parts of the chain that IOCs have been unwilling to provide. IOCs must continue to evolve in response to these approaches as NOCs seek new partners such as utilities who are keen to gain direct access to LNG supplies to meet their supply and commercial requirements and LNG shipping and service companies seeking to diversify into different parts of the value chain. The pace of divergence in IOC/NOC relationships can be slowed down but IOCs will have to clearly focus their strategy and activities and be more flexible to NOC requirements if they want to maintain their position in the industry."

Nabucco moves ahead of South Stream in regional energy race

by Stephen Blank, EurasiaNet

July has seen a sudden reversal of fortune in Caspian and Black Sea Basin pipeline politics. The Nabucco pipeline project has staged a noteworthy comeback, while a competing Russian-backed route, dubbed South Stream, now seems to be losing steam. Uncertainty surrounding future demand, however, raises the possibility that neither pipeline ever becomes a reality.

The decline of the Venezuelan oil industry

by Rudolf ten Hoedt

President Hugo Chávez’s oil nationalism is wreaking havoc on Venezuela’s oil industry. Oil production has stagnated and threatens to decline even further. But Chávez has one last ace up his sleeve: the oil sands in Orinoco, that harbour more oil than Saudi Arabia.

Postcard from Pipelineistan

by Pepe Escobar

What happens on the immense battlefield for the control of Eurasia will provide the ultimate plot line in the tumultuous rush towards a new, polycentric world order, also known as the New Great Game, argues Pepe Escobar, roving correspondent for Asia Times, analyst for The Real News and contributor to Tomdispatch.com. This article is based on his new book “Obama does Globalistan”.

‘Stop being paranoid about being energy dependent’

by Alex Forbes

Interview: Noé van Hulst, International Energy Forum
With global energy markets facing multiplying challenges, the need for producing and consuming countries to work together on issues of mutual concern is more urgent than ever. At the centre of these efforts is the International Energy Forum (IEF). The IEF has made a major effort to improve transparency of global oil market data, and is now trying to do the same for gas data and investments in oil and gas production. ‘Our main challenge now is to translate words into action’, says Secretary General Noé van Hulst.

EU heavily divided on South Stream

by Roman Kazmin

Russia’s drive for the construction of the South Stream pipeline has recently entered a new era marked by proliferation of intergovernmental agreements. Despite strong signs of support among some member states, the opinion within the EU on the South Stream project and its role for European energy security remains divided.

Nabucco’s window of opportunity

by Nazrin Mehdiyeva

The psychological effect of the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute on Europe and difficulties in relations between Russia and Turkmenistan are giving a new boost to Nabucco. But the EU’s gas pipeline hopes are being undermined by competing projects from European companies and the Caspian states’ growing realisation that they may secure a better deal if they do not commit to any pipeline just yet. For the proponents of Nabucco, the time to act is now.

'We view ourselves as much a European as a Russian Company'

by Karel Beckman

Interview Vagit Alekperov, ceo Lukoil
Vagit Alekperov, CEO of Russia's largest private oil company, travelled to Brussels for the first tme in his life earlier this year to attend the European Business Summit. He calls for more serious and substantial consultations with energy producers regarding decisions and legislation adopted at the EU level: 'The good intentions to fight climate change, to increase the use of renewable energy sources, and so on, should not have negative effects on existing production capacities'.

Natural Gas in China
Market evolution and strategy

by Nobuyuki Higashi

In 2007, China`s natural gas consumption increased by 23.8% and attained 69.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) (NBS 2008). Thanks to this rapid increase, China became one of the world’s top 10 countries in terms of natural gas consumption. Moreover, according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008, China will become the top natural gas consuming country in the Asia-Pacific region, overtaking Japan by 2015. Until the start of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in 2006, China was self-sufficient in terms of natural gas. Although China has accelerated the domestic production of natural gas, which increased by 18.3% and attained 69.2 bcm in 2007, its import dependence is expected to increase rapidly due to rising gas demand.

US$147/B One Year On
Political Winners and Strategic Losers

By Matthew Hulbert

This paper examines the political implications of oil prices states as high as $147/b in 2008 or as low as $33/b in 2009 on oil producing countries. After a five-year bull run from 2004-2008 oil producers became used to high receipts cementing support at home while buying influence abroad. Thus the political demise of producer regimes was expected to follow the sharp 2009 drop in prices. But amid a sustained economic crisis, the author argues, political resilience became the leitmotif of producer states. He concludes that, with prices and resource nationalism set to rise in tandem, the political impetus could shift back to producers once more, but unless lessons are learned from 2008-2009, all states will lose out.

The scramble for Iraq's 'sweet oil'

By Nicole Johnston, Al Jazeera

With proven oil reserves of around 112 billion barrels and up to another 150 billion barrels of probable reserves, Iraq is the greatest untapped prize for international oil companies. To put that in context, if Iraq does turn out to have around 300 billion barrels of oil, it will rival the world's biggest producer Saudi Arabia - which has around 160 billion barrels of proven reserves.

So it is little wonder that giant international oil companies are lining up to get back into Iraq after the industry was nationalised in the 1970s and the oil majors were kicked out. On June 30 major companies - including Exxon, Shell, BP and Total - will gather at Iraq's oil ministry in Baghdad for a two-day meeting to take part in the first bidding round for oil service contracts. However, what the oil companies will be entitled to if they secure a contract has become one of the most controversial elements of the bidding process.

Problems and prospects for the “Fourth Corridor”: the positions and role of turkey in gas transit to europe

Gareth Winrow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Caspian and Middle East gas pipelines to Europe have become an increasingly important and emotive in the late 2000s. The role of Turkey will be critical for all of these projects. But is Turkey a potential hub for, or a potential obstacle to, Caspian and Middle East gas supplies to Europe? Gareth Winrow has consulted many Turkish stakeholders in relation to the different aspects of these issues, and his paper sets out the conflicting views which make this subject confusing for those attempting to establish the reality of Caspian gas supplies to Europe.

Resource rents redistribution and halving global poverty: the resource dividend

Paul Segal, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

This paper by Paul Segal considers the proposal that each country distribute its resource rents directly to citizens as a cash transfer or Resource Dividend and estimates its potential impact on global poverty. If every developing country implemented the policy then the number of people living below the World Bank’s $1-a-day global poverty line would be halved. Further potential benefits of the policy and a range of administrative and political challenges are discussed.

New era for Gazprom, as gas giant's fortunes plummet

By Bruce Pannier - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

It's been a tough year for Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas giant. Just a year ago, Russia's state-owned gas giant Gazprom was the third-most valuable company in the world, worth some $350 billion. Now, it has shrunk by two-thirds to about $120 billion, declining to the world's 40th-largest company, according to "The Moscow Times" on May 27. And the company appears set to fall another notch or two, thanks to a ruling by Russian antimonopoly authorities on June 2 that Gazprom must share its export pipelines with independent gas producers.

Iran and the challenges to Middle East security

Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam C. Seitz, CSIS

Iran presents a wide range of potential challenges to the security of the Middle East. This does not mean that Iran plans to start new conflicts in the region or will actively seek to achieve its objectives by force. At the same time, however, Iran is actively seeking to expand its influence, and is now the most serious threat to the security of energy exports in the Gulf region.

Putin and Gazprom

By Boris Nemtsov and Vladimir Milov

Under Vladimir Putin's terms in office Gazprom, Russia's largest energy company, has performed extremely poorly. Production has not risen since 1999, despite high economic growth and increasing (domestic) demand for natural gas. The company has been loaded with debt while losing control over assets worth more than $60 billion dollars. These are some of the findings in an article by Boris Nemtsov and Vladimir Milov, respectively former Russian Minister of Energy and former Russian Deputy Minister of Energy.

The authors explain that Gazprom is of paramount importance to Russia's economy. No other corporation in Russia has such political and economic clout. In fact, as argue by Nemtsov and Milov, it is the powerhouse of Russia's economy: the stability and future of the Russian economy depend on how well and reliable this corporation works.

Gazprom's new weakness offers opportunity

By Anders Aslund 

Gazprom has gone from being a great commercial hope to an ailing giant. Gazprom's owners need to face up to the crisis and institute reforms.

A year ago, Gazprom was the third-most valuable company in the world with a market capitalization of over $350 billion. It has shrunk by two-thirds to about $120 billion, declining to the world's 40th-largest company, even though it still accounts for about 20 percent of Russia's market capitalization and roughly 10 percent of its gross domestic product.

EU must act as 'one voice' on energy

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

RFE/RL's Turkmen Service talked to Stefan Bouzarovski about the EU's Southern Corridor project and the Nabucco pipeline project to bring Caspian energy resources to Europe bypassing Russia. Dr. Stefan Bouzarovski of the University of Birmingham, a visiting professor at Charles University in Prague, is an expert on the socioeconomic, environmental, and political aspects of energy production, transport, and consumption -- in particular energy equity, security of supply, and energy pipelines.

Multiple pipelines, but no happiness, at EU-Russia summit

Bruce Pannier, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

In the 1990s, U.S. energy companies intent on shoring up oil and natural-gas supplies adopted the slogan "Happiness Is Multiple Pipelines."

But no echoes of that sentiment are likely to be heard as the leaders of the European Union and Russia gather for a two-day summit on May 21-22 in the Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk. Pipelines will definitely be on the agenda, but according to Anita Orban, the Budapest-based author of "Power, Energy, and the New Russian Imperialism," happiness probably will not.

Russia and the Caspian States in the Global Energy Balance

The Baker Institute Energy Forum

Russia's status as a current and future energy producer is close to unrivaled. However, the countries energy geopolitical reach is limited, constrained by dependence on the European market, as a result of geography and historical investments. The authors claim that Russia's limited acces to seaborne export have historically under-optimised revenues from energy exports, as well as Moscow's direct energy market influence. however, Russia has been rethinking its energy strategy in order to assert itself on the international stage.

State-Owned vs. Multinational Oil: New Rules for Market Intervention

Angelica Austin, EastWest Institute

Energy markets, unlike financial markets and other goods and services, are more generally characterized by substantial government intervention. The energy sector is dominated by companies that either had or still do have substantial support from national governments. Beyond the formal state-owned sector, private energy companies have always been under scrutiny and or control by government given the importance of providing reliable supplies of ‘essential services’ and energy security to a country’s people and businesses. This aim of governments has meant that domestic energy policy impacts on foreign policy in a number of ways, including escalating fears regarding resource nationalism when oil prices are volatile.

Russia's new gas projects

by Jakub M Godzimirski, Nina Poussenkova
ISN / Russian Analytical Digest No. 58

Current pricedrops and lower gas demand have forced Gazprom to lower its income forecasts and with that its investment budget for the coming years. This issue of the Russian Analytical Digest digs into the effects of this income loss on Russia's gas strategy. Specifically, it considers the importance of the northern areas in the realization of the country's energy strategy and discusses energy cooperation with Japan and South Korea.

Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict

Paul Stevens, Chatham House

Any reading of the history of transit oil and gas pipelines suggests a tendency to produce conflict and disagreement, often resulting in the cessation of throughput, sometimes for a short period and sometimes for longer. It is tempting to attribute this to bad political relations between neighbours. This is certainly part of the story, but also important is the nature of the 'transit terms' - tariffs and offtake terms - whereby transit countries are rewarded for allowing transit. Put simply, the trouble with transit pipelines has a significant economic basis.

Geopolitics of energy and the role of Russia in global power shifts

Sofie Vanmaele and David Criekemans

At the Flemish Centre of International Policy (FCIP), located in Antwerp (Belgium), Sofie Vanmaele and Dr. David Criekemans wrote a study on the topic of “Geopolitics of Energy and the Role of Russia in Global Power Shifts”.

Pipeline explosion raises tensions between Turkmenistan and Russia

Bruce Pannier, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov is calling for talks with Russia as part of efforts to repair a damaged natural gas pipeline and, more importantly, damaged Turkmen-Russian relations after last week’s pipeline explosion. Berdymukhammedov said he is prepared to call for an independent investigation into the cause of the April 9 explosion that struck the Central Asia-Tsentr-4 pipeline that connects Turkmenistan to Russia.

Canada's new geopolitics: When a green country becomes a petroleum country

Roberto De Primis, European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center (ESISC)

Canada has always projected an image of a green country with vast open spaces and with politicians supporting the environment and sustainable development. Nonetheless, since the beginning of the new millennium gigantic reserves of heavy oil coming from bituminous sands in the province of Alberta have been promoted commercially by the large worldwide energy companies. Canada now has the world’s second largest proven oil reserves, just behind Saudi Arabia. The geopolitical implications resulting from this fact have transformed the bilateral relations with its American neighbour and modified its international posture with respect to such strategic challenges as the Kyoto Protocol.

Transatlantic Cooperation for Sustainable Energy Security

Franklin Kramer, John Lyman, Centre for Strategic & International Studies

According to these two authors we are in a decisive interval for the institutions of the Euro-Atlantic community. Traditional concerns — security, economic, political, and societal — have become increasingly bundled into circumstances that cannot be addressed by any nation alone, however powerful, or any single institution, however influential. Under such circumstances, capabilities, too, need to be bundled for use through a comprehensive approach that combines hard and soft power into smart power, as well as the states and institutions that can best provide or even share them. Americans and Europeans must work together to develop these comprehensive approaches to today's challenges, and thus ensure that tomorrow's solutions are effective for them and the rest of the world.

The Ukraine crisis: Not solved yet

by Alex Forbes

The resolution of the gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine remains fragile. Although ten-year agreements are now in place, it is far from clear that Ukraine will be capable of meeting the terms of the agreement. According to Professor Jonathan Stern, Head of Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the future is very worrying. ‘It’s not clear what will happen if the Ukranians fail to pay.’

Interview George Verberg: ‘Gas market has become too politicised’

by Karel Beckman

George Verberg, former chief executive officer of the Dutch gas producer Gasunie and former President of the International Gas Union, was asked by the Energy Charter Secretariat to stand ready to serve as mediator in the Russia-Ukraine gas conflict in January. However, the conflict escalated so quickly that it was almost immediately handled at the highest political level. ‘I never got the chance to become involved’, says Verberg.

Interview Jean-Marie Devos, Secretary-General Eurogas: ‘I am convinced that Russia is a reliable partner’

by Hughes Belin

Europe was a hit by a “gas crisis without precedent” last January. Jean-Marie Devos, Secretary General of Eurogas, the European Union of the Natural Gas Industry, describes three crazy weeks during which the gas producers worked doggedly on the ground while the politicians debated ways of starting deliveries up again.

Enter the Dragon: economic turmoil and resource acquisition

Matthew Hulbert, Centre for Security Studies (CSS/ETH)

The economic crisis has taken a heavy toll on commodity prices as demand destruction firmly sets in. While Western oil, metals and mining giants rethink investment strategies in light of commercial constraints, China will continue to use the downturn as a ‘perfect storm’ to invest on strategic grounds to fuel long term domestic growth while underlining the pronounced role of the state in natural resource acquisition.

Russia’s Energy Relations with its Caspian Neighbors

International Relations and Security Network (ISN)
 
Russian Analytical Digest No.56 examines the energy dimension of Russia’s foreign policy. Specifically, it considers Russia’s energy relations with Azerbaijan, its role in the Karabakh conflict and relations with Kazakhstan in the context of energy transportation and military cooperation with NATO. Further, it considers the international context of energy relations between Russia and Turkmenistan. Additionally, this issue presents maps on major oil and natural gas pipelines in Central Asia and around the Caspian Sea as well as statistics on Russian oil and gas reserves, production and consumption in international comparison.

The Russo-Ukrainian gas dispute of January 2009: a comprehensive assessment

Simon Pirani, Jonathan Stern and Katja Yafimava, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

This is the first major academic study of the January 2009 Russo-Ukrainian gas dispute during which 20 per cent of Europe's gas supplies were cut off for two weeks. This study, published less than a month after the dispute was settled, concludes that this dispute had no winners. Moreover, with the exception of European gas companies and some European heads of state, none of the parties involved have emerged with any great credit. There is no evidence that Russia intended to use energy as an economic or political "weapon" against European countries. The role of "oligarchs", while certainly unhelpful, was not decisive.

Thoughts on a strategic partnership with Russia

EP Press Service

MEPs and experts debated the future of relations with Russia and its influence over its closest neighbours at a Foreign Affairs Committee hearing at the European Parliament on Thursday 12 February. They questioned Moscow's reliability as a partner at a time when the EU is negotiating the renewal of its framework agreement with Russia.

Energy-hungry Europe misses another wake-up call

By Alexandros Petersen, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

It has become cliche to say that the latest natural-gas row between Russia and Ukraine should be a wake-up call for the EU in its sluggish struggle to secure energy supplies devoid of Kremlin control. A similar flap between Moscow and Kyiv in 2006 was supposed to have set off alarm bells. But, it did not. And, this latest crisis will not either.

Will the real Gazprom ceo please stand up

By Anders Aslund

The great Russian-Ukrainian gas war is over, and it is time to assess the outcome. On the surface, the result looks promising. Finally, Russia and Ukraine have concluded a normal long-term gas agreement. Both gas prices and transit tariffs are market-related and based on clear principles without shady intermediaries or arbitrariness. The gas prices will probably average $230 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2009, while investment bankers had expected $250.

Nabucco pipeline conference ends with EU support,
but no cash

By Bruce Pannier, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

There was an air of optimism following a one-day Nabucco international gas pipeline conference in Budapest. Though the event failed to provide as much clarity as many had hoped, the conference did end with pledges of financing - although no cash yet - and vows to start work on the pipeline this year.

Strengthening global energy security

by Rex W. Tillerson, Chairman and CEO of ExxonMobil

Chairman of the world's largest integrated energy company, Rex Tillerson, laid down his views on how the world can enhance the security of its energy needs in a speech delivered at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. In his Speech, Mr Tillerson adressess the different challanges the world's energy sector is faced with today.

The Chinese threat

by Hans van Koningsbrugge

While the US and Europe compete for Shtokman gas, China is increasingly asserting as an attractive market for Russian energy. Yet, in the end, Russia will give Europe preference, expects Hans van Koningsbrugge, Director of the Netherlands-Russia Centre of the University of Groningen.

Ukraine versus Russia: the real story

by Jérôme Guillet

The gas conflict between Ukraine and Russia is not what it appears to be in the western media, argues Jérôme Guillet. It has been going on for at least 15 years and it is really a war between private parties in Russia and Ukraine who engage in illicit gas trading.

Medvedev and Gazprom: hanging together

by Nazrin Mehdiyeva

President Dmitry Medvedev’s close affiliation to Gazprom has until recently been a source of strength for both. With energy prices slipping, the growing risks for Gazprom also become a risk for Medvedev.

Nazrin Mehdiyeva is a gas consultant and Russian/CIS specialist at Pöyry Energy Consulting.

Final Warning

James Sherr, The World Today, Chatham House

It is far from clear that the sources, dynamics and implications of the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis are understood, writes James Sherr in the forthcoming issue of The World Today. He warns of the dangers of this dispute and insists that the EU must act swiftly.

Oil 2009. Be careful what you wish for

By Michael T. Klare, TomDispatch

As the price of a barrel of oil has edged back up, energy expert Michael Klare, author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Oil, reminds us of one crucial fact. Whether the price of oil is high or low, someone's going to pay - and sooner or later all of us will - because our civilization is based on the stuff. Starting with the question of energy seems once again an appropriate way to go this year.

Where east meets west: European gas and Ukrainian reality

Edward Chow and Jonathan Elkind, The Washington Quarterly

This article looks at the internal situation of the Ukraine.The authors argue in this article that while Ukraine plays a critical role as the key transit connection between gas producers in Russia as well as Central Asia and gas consumers in the EU, its incomplete market economic transition and culture of corruption weaken its own energy security and with it, European energy security.

Ukraine-Russia: some background and context

by Jérôme Guillet, The Oil Drum, European Tribune

Although western public opinion has only recently become aware of the Ukraine-Russia gas conflict, the dispute has been going for at least fifteen years, since the break-up of the Soviet Union. This article helpes us to understand why the two countries find it so hard to solve the problem.

EU, Russia to hold talks over gas flow

Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

The European Union has scheduled talks with Russia to press for a speedy resolution of a dispute with Ukraine that has reduced gas supplies to eastern and southern Europe.

From polar to nuclear?
"Nuclearification" of the Russian offshore oil and gas industry

By Vladislav Larin, Bellona

Russia is planning extensive development of offshore oil and gas reserves in the Arctic. Due to severe climate conditions and the energy demands inherent in this exploration, proposals have emerged to use nuclear-powered underwater drill ships and floating nuclear power plants for the upcoming projects.

2008 in review: Russia, EU see Caspian energy dreams deferred 

Bruce Pannier, By Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Entering the year, Russia appeared to have the upper hand in securing a lion’s share of the immense natural gas and oil reserves in the Caspian basin.

Iran: Breaking the nuclear deadlock

Sir Richard Dalton (ed), Chatham House

The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme is deadlocked. Five years of negotiations, proposals, UN resolutions and sanctions have failed to achieve a breakthrough. As diplomacy struggles and Iran continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, the issue becomes ever more grave and pressing.

There is some encouragement for progress in 2009. Iran’s economic and political weaknesses could make it receptive to US president-elect Barack Obama’s willingness to consider new approaches.

Perspectives on Caspian Oil and Gas Development

International Energy Agency Working Paper Series

The Caspian region is one of the oldest hydrocarbon producing areas in the world, and is emerging once again as a major source of growth in global oil and gas supply. In the IEA‘s medium-term projection for global oil supply to 2013, the Caspian is projected to increase its oil production by over 800 kb/d by 2013, representing some 70% of the net increase in non-OPEC oil supply growth during this period.

Gazprom's view on the new EU initiatives and Russian gas export

By Alexander I. Medvedev

On November 18, Deputy Chairman of OJSC Gazprom’s Management Committee Alexander I. Medvedev gave a reaction to the New Energy Policy that was presented by the European Commission on the 13th of November 2008. You can read his speech below.

Russia versus Gazprom

by Nazrin Mehdiyeva

Rising domestic demand and the depletion of traditional gas-fields mean that Russia will have to make choices as to where to send its gas. But the priorities of profit-hungry Gazprom and the Russian government often conflict – a trend likely to be exacerbated by the deteriorating relationship between Russia and the West.

Nazrin Mehdiyeva is a gas consultant and Russian/ CIS specialist at Pöyry Energy Consulting. She is based in Oxford.

'The Nord Stream pipeline is a fait accompli'

by Reiner Gatermann

Interview Paavo Lipponen

Finland’s former prime minister, Paavo Lipponen, was hired as consultant for Nord Stream AG in Finland, joining the team of Gerhard Schröder. In an interview with EER, Lipponen does not shy away from chiding the EU for its lack of support for the Baltic States. ‘It is essential that the Baltic states and Poland are connected to the European energy supply system.’

Solidarity is not a one-way street

by Karel Beckman

Interview Gerhard Schröder

The former German chancellor and current Chairman of the shareholders’ committee of Nord Stream, Gerhard Schröder, is convinced that the EU needs a ‘common energy policy’, but, he says, ‘it has to be one that all members can live with.’

Interview Sevak Sarukhanyan: Nabucco in danger.

by Marc Guillet

The crisis in Georgia is bad news for Nabucco. The EU’s pipeline project could become the victim of the power struggle between Russia and the West. One solution might be to involve Iran and Armenia.

Russia’s great transit game

by Vladislav Inozemtsev

Russia is trying desperately to maintain a monopoly on the transport of all oil and gas produced in the former Soviet Union. The country would do better to create an open, competitive market and invest in developing its own resources.

Why a Gas Troika and cartel will prove to be hot air…

By Matthew Hulbert and Tariq Akbar, senior analysts at Datamonitor energy and utilities

Despite endless media speculation that the world is about to witness the formation of a gas ‘OPEC’ spearheaded by a ‘troika’ of Russia, Iran and Qatar, such speculation is vastly overblown. Russia is currently working on a draft charter for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) to sign off on in late November 2008 before the forum next meets towards the end of the year.

Kazakhstan’s gas: Export markets and export routes

Shamil Yenikeyeff, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

As the second largest oil and gas producer in the former USSR after Russia, the method with which Kazakhstan chooses to develop its gas resources and export infrastructure will have significant implications for gas exports from Central Asia and the Caspian region, as well as for the existing European and Chinese plans for diversification of natural gas supplies.

Obama's Toughest ChallengeAmerica's Energy Crunch Comes HomeBy Michael T. Klare

Of all the challenges facing President Barack Obama next January, none is likely to prove as daunting, or important to the future of this nation, as that of energy. After all, energy policy -- so totally mishandled by the outgoing Bush-Cheney administration -- figures in each of the other major challenges facing the new president, including the economy, the environment, foreign policy, and our Middle Eastern wars. Most of all, it will prove a monumental challenge because the United States faces an energy crisis of unprecedented magnitude that is getting worse by the day.

Parallel worlds of political risk: why geopolitics does and doesn’t matter for oil

By Matthew Hulbert and Tariq Akbar, senior analysts at Datamonitor energy and utilities

While OPEC was largely a gleeful spectator of the oil markets up to July 2008 when prices hit a staggering $147/b, it has resumed centre stage in the oil markets once more as prices plummeted to $62/b. Geopolitical friction was undoubtedly used to drive prices up, just as readily as investors ignored political risk when dragging prices back down, but geopolitics now matters more than ever for the oil markets.

Falling Price Of Oil Compounds Iranian President's Problems

By Hossein Aryan, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Watching global markets floundering in the wake of the credit crunch, Iran's clerical and political elites are reveling in the West's economic woes, which have partly deflected attention from the country's domestic troubles and international isolation.

Europe and Russia: losing momentum?

By Orietta Moscatelli, head of the Italian Information Agency APCOM 'New Europe' project, for Russian Information Agency Novosti

The Nabucco project, the gas pipeline that should link Erzurum in Turkey to Austria, was born in Europe out of fears of growing energy dependence on Russia. A fear spread by the ‘gas war' with Ukraine in 2005-2006 and refreshed by the new Caucasus conflict this year.

Gazprom works to advance Russia's interests in Central Asia

By Bruce Pannier, for Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

People in Kyrgyzstan will likely feel warmer this winter, but the extra heat will come at quite a price: the government signed a deal last week to sell Gazprom about 75 percent of the beleaguered state-owned natural-gas company, Kyrgyzgaz.

How Do Experts Estimate The Size Of Oil And Gas Fields?

By Breffni O'Rourke, for Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Turkmenistan is in the news this week after confirming that its South Yolotan-Osman natural-gas field is among the five biggest in the world. That assertion is based on a survey done by an independent British firm. Such estimates are of vital importance to energy-rich countries, as they cannot plan their national strategies without some idea of what resources they have. So how do surveyors determine how much wealth lies under their feet? And just how accurate are these estimations anyway?

Kazakhstan Set To Increase Energy Cooperation With Iran

By Bruce Pannier, for Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

KazMunaiGaz, Kazakhstan's state-owned oil and gas company, is charting a new course under the leadership of its new president, Kayrgeldy Kabyldin, who took over in August. Kabyldin is guiding the company toward closer cooperation with Iran, and he has made it clear that international sanctions against the Islamic Republic will not stand in his way.

Turkmen gas riches revive pipe dreams

By Bruce Pannier, for Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 

The announcement this week that Turkmen gas riches may exceed the West’s wildest dreams is likely to focus attention back on pipeline projects that bypass Russia in pumping Caspian energy supplies to European markets.

Russia: On the look-out for ways to increase its Caspian Basin energy position

By Sergei Blagov, Eurasianet

Russia is pressing for the creation of a new organization, dubbed the Caspian Economic Cooperation Organization, in an apparent bid to increase its influence over the region’s vast energy resources. The Kremlin threw its support behind the Caspian group, or CECO, during a meeting of regional officials, held in the Russian city of Astrakhan on October 3.

Hydrocarbons - the formula of war

By Ilya Kramnik, Russian Information Agency Novosti

Hydrocarbon prices, new nuclear and hydro-power plants, oil blackmail - energy is now one of the central issues discussed in the world. Even the defense sector is not immune: many analysts tend to view most 20th century wars as wars for energy. The role and significance of energy resources and the part energy plays in wars is worth examining.

Can Russia deliver more natural gas?

by Stefan Schroeter

Deeper, further, colder; in pursuit of Russia's natural gas

by Stefan Schroeter

The world’s largest producer of natural gas, Gazprom, plans to significantly expand its extraction activities by 2020. To this end, new gas fields are to be developed in remote regions under challenging climatic conditions. Together with their modern technologies, European partners are welcome to join in, as long as they accept Gazprom’s terms.

The decline of the energy superpower

by Vladislav Inozemtsev

Russia’s status as an energy powerhouse is, for the most part, well-deserved. But the future is not looking as bright as it should. Poor economic strategy, reduced production and a lack of competition are only some of the factors dragging down Russia’s energy sector, a development that will have consequences for Europe as well.

Interview Alan Riley: A bad time for a pipeline?

by Karel Beckman, Stefan Nicola

It was, more than anything else, the European Parliament who got Alan Riley, Professor at the City Law School in London, involved in Nord Stream. ‘They asked me to look into this’, he says. Riley wrote a highly critical paper on Nord Stream for the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee (Nord Stream: An Economic and Market Analysis of the North European Pipeline Project). In his paper he focuses on the economic rationale of the project. Riley, who has done work for the UK Defence Academy and has acted as an advisor to the Lithuanian government, is currently writing another paper for the European Parliament on another Russian pipeline project – South Stream.

Swedish neutrality put to the test by Nord Stream

by Reiner Gatermann

The Swedes fear the increased Russian presence in the Baltic Sea that Nord Stream would bring. They also feel they have nothing to gain by the pipeline. But will they actively try to block a project that the EU has designated as crucial to Europe’s energy needs?

The pipe kings from Germany

by Stefan Nicola

Outside the pipeline industry, not many people have heard of the German company Europipe. Yet the firm in Mülheim an der Ruhr is the world’s largest pipe producer. Last year, it emerged the big winner from a worldwide tender to produce the offshore pipes for Nord Stream.

Germany slowly warming to Nord Stream

by Stefan Nicola

Despite the fact that the Nord Stream pipeline clearly contributes to German energy security, the German public has never been in favour of this project. However, this seems to be changing lately.

Interview Matthias Warnig: 'The discussion has surprised me in its fierceness'

by Stefan Nicola

Nord Stream is led by Matthias Warnig, former Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Russian subsidiary of Dresdner Bank. Before that he worked for the East German secret service – a background he shares with Vladimir Putin, with whom he is said to be on good terms. EER spoke to him at the company’s headquarters in Zug, Switzerland.

'It is unthinkable that this project will be stopped'

by Karel Beckman, Stefan Nicola

Few European infrastructure projects have met with greater suspicion and resistance than the Nord Stream pipeline, which is to carry Russian natural gas direct to Germany through the Baltic Sea. But the company’s executives do no doubt for a moment that their project will go ahead. ‘Europe cannot do without Nord Stream.’

Russia and OPEC deepen ties

By United Press International

Oil and conflict have a symbiotic relationship. Last month's armed confrontation between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia highlighted Georgia's vulnerability as a Caspian energy corridor, where the West's prize possession, the $3.6 billion, million-barrel-per-day, 1,092-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, transits. Since the military clash ended, the geostrategic maneuvering between Russia and the United States for Caspian energy reserves has only intensified, and Russia has taken the dispute to a new level by cozying up to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and proposing "extensive cooperation."

Georgia-Russia Conflict Changes The Energy Equation

By Bruce Pannier, 2 September 2008, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, link to article

Officials at the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline announced last week that the pipeline is fully functional and work has started to refill it. But in the weeks since the pipeline stopped working due to a fire along the Turkish section, much has changed along the pipeline's route due to the Georgian-Russian conflict.

The Georgia-Russia standoff and the future of Central Asian energy supplies

Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff, Oxford Institute of Energy Studies

The latest military conflict between Georgia and Russia over the autonomous region of South Ossetia is likely to have a serious impact on export routes for the Caspian and Central Asian hydrocarbons and as a result on the existing European and Chinese plans of diversification of oil and gas supplies.

Bush Administration checkmated in Georgia

Michael Klare, Tom Dispatch.com

To fully grasp the recent upheavals in the Caucasus, it is necessary to view the conflict as but a minor skirmish in a great geopolitical struggle between Moscow and Washington over the energy riches of the Caspian Sea basin.

10 things to know about Sarah Palin and energy

Craig Rubens, Earth2Tech

Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, bringing to the GOP ticket a full-throated call to drill, drill, drill, argues Craig Rubens.

Palin a friend of big oil?

Robert Rapier, R-Squared Energy Blog

John McCain picked first term Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate. Is Palin a friend of the big oil companies? Robert Rapier hardly thinks so. She raised taxes on oil companies rather than lowered them.

Russia, Iran - Crisis of the West

Paul Rogers, OpenDemocracy

Moscow's war in Georgia and Tehran's nuclear challenge highlight the failings of United States and European security policy.

Mexico: Oil votes

Oxford Analytica

Wednesday will see final state plebiscites on Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s energy sector reform, which would see more private participation in the oil sector. Calderon is likely headed for victory - but it may prove to be a hollow one.

Georgia conflict fuelled by rush to control energy

Interview Michael Klare, Democracy Now

What really underlies the conflict in Georgia is the fact that the US has targeted Georgia as an energy corridor for exporting Caspian Sea oil and gas to the West. The US built up the Georgia military for this purpose, says Michael Klare in an interview with Democracy Now.

Kaczynski and Sarkozy: war and peace

Leszek Miller, RIA Novosti

Western countries have accused Russia of a 'disproportionate' response to the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia. That is not how the Russians see it. A commentator for the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti explains the Russian point of view.

Russia and the world in the 21st century Sergei Lavrov, Russia in Global Affairs The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov argues that a new international architecture is coming into existence, no longer dominated by the United States, but controlled by a 'core group of leading nations', Russia among them. Go to article

Blowback from bear-baiting

Patrick Buchanan, Antiwar.com

The famous conservative American politican Patrick Buchanan lashes out at western hypocrisy towards Russia. 'Are secessions and the dissolution of nations laudable only when they advance the agenda of the neocons, many of whom viscerally detest Russia?'

Kazakhstan and South Ossetia: the oil connection

John C. Daly, UPI

The biggest casualty of the showdown has been the West's naive belief that Georgia provides a secure alternative energy corridor that avoids either Russia or charter "axis of evil" member Iran.

Hot issues in the Arctic

Caroline Hilpert, ISN Security Watch

A report on the Arctic Circle's oil and gas raises new questions over who owns the region and natural resources it offers, Carolin Hilpert writes for ISN Security Watch.

Russia not out of the woods yet

Roland Oliphant, RIA Novosti

By calling an end to military action, Russian president Medvedev has averted a geopoltical disaster. The question is what the long-term consequences of the South Ossetia conflict will be for Russia-EU relations. For instance, for the Nord Stream project.

Russia not out of the woods yet

Roland Oliphant, RIA Novosti

By ending military action in South Ossetia, President Dmitry Medvedev has rescued Russia's reputation and brought the world back from the brink of geopolitical disaster. The question is what will the long-term consequences of the South Ossetia conflict be for Russia - EU relations. For instance, for the Nord Stream project.

Georgia - The messy truth behind the morality tale

Brendan O'Neill - Spiked Online

It is remarkable how quickly other people’s bloody tragedies can be transformed into simple morality tales by Western observers sitting in cushioned, air-conditioned offices.

South Ossetia: the violent thaw

By Asbed Kotchikian, ISN Security Watch

As a frozen conflict unthaws militarily, Georgia harms its chances of taking control of South Ossetia and Russia demonstrates its firm resolve.

The real aggressor

By Justin Raimondo, Antiwar.com

The Georgian invasion of South Ossetia sets the stage for a wider war - one that is deliberately being encouraged by Cold War planners in the West.

Is Tskhinvali the centre of the world?

By John Laughland, Director of Studies at the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation in Paris, for RIA Novosti

American geostrategists want to turn the Black Sea into a NATO lake and drive Russia out of her historic territories in Europe. That is why the outcome of any fighting there will be a litmus test for the balance of power between Russia and America in the years to come.

My energy plan is better than yours

Charles Pena - Antiwar.com

In addition to dueling over Afghanistan, Senators McCain and Obama are trying to one-up each other when it comes to energy. Most notably, the McCain campaign recently released an ad that essentially blames Obama for $4-a-gallon gasoline (although the price of gasoline has actually gone down since the ad was first aired).

America out of oil

By Michael T. Klare 

The modern American empire was built on cheap oil. Now, in an era of oil-scarcity, the US’s oil addiction is undermining its position as the world’s superpower.

The book of numbers

By Chris Cragg, European Energy Review

The “BP Statistical Review of World Energy” has now been published for over 50 years. It remains by far the most accessible source of global energy statistics available. Looking back to the earliest editions not only reveals the astonishing, almost exponential, increase in the world’s energy demand, but also how the preoccupations of the oil industry have changed down the years.

EU eyes gas from the Mashreq and Iraq

by Hughes Belin

In an attempt to boost diversification of energy supplies, the EU takes steps to secure gas from the Mashreq-countries and Iraq. An example of Brussels’ new “energy diplomacy” in action.

Interviews Rainer Seele and Vladimir Litvinenko

by Stefan Nicola

EU-Russia relations remain fragile

by Stefan Nicola

Diplomatic relations between Europe and its largest energy supplier remain critically fragile, a recent high-level energy dialogue in Berlin showed. The Russians still feel on the defensive, while European business works frantically at damage control.

Algeria embraces globalisation and liberalisation

by Yves de Saint Jacob

Algeria’s culture of state monopoly and single party rule has been set aside as the country appears to have resolutely chosen globalisation and liberalisation of its markets.

Can Russia become an oil paradise?

By Vladimir Milov, Institute of Energy Policy, 15 July 2006

In the article, IEP president Vladimir Milov argues that "petrostates" can be clearly divided into two unequal groups: those countries where the population is sufficiently small to live well off of hydrocarbon exports, and those countries where such income is barely sufficient to cover the most basic needs of the population and the appetites of government bureaucrats.

Gazprom Deal Imperils Hopes For Trans-Caspian Pipeline

By Bruce Pannier, For Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 17 2008

A landmark deal reached this month between Russian gas giant Gazprom and three energy-rich Central Asian states is likely to usher in dramatically higher prices for countries reliant on Russia for their natural gas.

Central Asia: Uzbek, Turkmen Leaders Pursue Better Relations

By Gulnoza Saidazimova, For Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,

The presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are hailing their improved ties following a rare visit to Tashkent this week by President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov of Turkmenistan.

Pipeline politics boosts Turkey's profile in Europe

by Marc Guillet, European Energy Review, November - December 2007

Ceyhan reeks of gas and oil. It is the same smell that permeates the old oil town Baku on the western shore of the Caspian Sea, where some of the oil originates that is stored here in Ceyhan. The citizens of Ceyhan had better get used to the smell. This Turkish oil complex on the eastern Mediterranean coast is fast becoming a major energy hub. Like Turkey itself.

Dialogue for global energy security: The role of the International Energy Forum

Transcript of the presentation of Ambassador Arne Walther of the International Energy Forum, 7 November 2007, Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)

The CSIS Energy and National Security Program hosted Ambassador Arne Walther to discuss the role of the International Energy Forum (IEF). The IEF gathers Ministers of energy producers and consumers from industrialized and developing countries to foster a global dialogue on energy.

New pipelines transform South-Eastern Europe

By Ioannis Michaletos, European Energy Review, November- December 2007

Russia and the United States are vying for influence in various pipeline projects in South-Eastern Europe. Particularly, the Russian-controlled Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline competes with the American-controlled Ambo pipeline. But whether any or both of these pipelines will be built, is not certain yet.

How secure are Middle East oil supplies?

By Bassam Fattouh, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, September 2007

This paper assesses under which circumstances the region would cease to act (willing or unwillingly) as a reliable supplier of oil, what are the chances of these events occurring, and in case of a disruption, how big the impact is likely to be on oil supplies and productive capacity.

No "Silver Bullet": The 2007 National Petroleum Council report in the US energy debate

By Warner ten Kate, Clingendael International Energy Programme, August 2007

This briefing paper evaluates the policy recommendations made in the NPC report and concludes that there is not a single answer to the questions of import dependency and climate change.

The myth of the Iranian oil weapon

By Bassam Fattouh, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, August 2007

Although Iran has many tools for deterrence or retaliation at its disposal, contrary to what many analysts believe, the oil weapon is not one of them.

The changing role of National Oil Companies in international oil markets

Study by the The Baker Institute Energy Forum of James A. Baker III Institute for public policy, March/April 2007 

NOCs are considerably less technically efficient than a comparable firm privately owned. Depending on the government’s share in the company and whether the company has to sell their fuel at subsidized prices this on average leads to a 65% efficiency loss for an NOC that is fully government owned and sells at subsidized prices as compared to a privately held firm. The prior often have non-commercial socio-economic priorities rather than economic drivers. This may result in that NOCs encounter more problems in replacing their reserves and to expand their production.

Geopolitics of natural gas

Study by the The Baker Institute Energy Forum of James A. Baker III Institute for public policy, March 2005

Based on the premises that natural gas is to become an even more important element in the world's fuel mix, this study presents an analysis of the development of the world market for natural gas. By utilizing historical case studies as well as advanced economic models the interplay between economic and political factors in the development of natural gas resources is examined.

Tomorrow’s Mores: The international system, geopolitical changes and energy

CIEP study, Clingendael International Energy Programme, December 2005

Tomorrow’s Mores explores the limits of future energy relations within a changing international system.

Study EU energy supply security and geopolitics

CIEP study, Clingendael International Energy Programme, January 2004

Study conducted for the Directorate General Trans European Networks. This study provides an analysis of EU energy supplies in the wider dynamic context of geopolitics and geo-economics.

Facing the hard truths about energy: A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas

The National Petroleum Council, July 2007

A comprehensive report by the US national petroleum Council on the development of the energy sector untill 2030 and the mechanisms endowed by the US government to give shape to this development.

Gazprom’s risky strategy

by Anders Åslund

Since Alexei Miller became chief executive of Gazprom, the company has pursued a consistent pricing strategy. But as a monopolist, Gazprom may be its own worst enemy.

Russian power reform: Gazprom in control

by Jeroen Ketting

The liberalisation and privatisation of the Russian electricity market is drawing in European players like Eon, Enel and EdF. But it might well be good old Gazprom that will end up controlling the market.

Green light for green energy

by Valery Sorokin

Russia is well known for its enormous supply of fossil fuels but the Russian government, after many years of delay, is now set to stimulate renewable energy as well.

Russia under Medvedev: between state power and liberal reform

by Hans van Koningsbrugge

The well-orchestrated succession of Vladimir Putin by Dmitry Medvedev occurred without a hitch. But Medvedev still faces a formidable task: to find a new balance between government interference and a market economy.

Cease-fire in the energy war

by Karel Beckman

In the energy war between producers and consumers that has been heating up in recent years, the ministerial gathering at the International Energy Forum (IEF) in April marked a ceasefire. But whether this leads to a permanent peace remains to be seen.

A Gas-Opec in the making?

by Valery Sorokin, Cyril Widdershoven

In June, the world’s major gas exporting countries will meet in Moscow. They might decide to found a cartel similar to Opec. Cyril Widdershoven and Valery Sorokin give their view on the likelyhood that the Gas Exporting Countries Forum will evolve into some sort of "Gas Opec" or "Gaspec".

Russia waking up to climate change

by Brook Horowitz

Environmental issues have not been high on the agenda in Russia, but attitudes in the business community are beginning to change. With leadership in the fight against climate change unlikely to be provided by the two largest emitters, the US and China, could this be a role for the third largest - Russia?

The liberalization of the Russian electricity market

by Jeroen Ketting

Russia is embarking on a huge market reform project of its electricity sector that politicians in Brussels and Washington can only dream of.

Interview John Feldmann: 'Security through partnership'

by Stefan Nicola

European Energy Review talked to BASF management board member John Feldmann, who is responsible for the chemical giant’s oil and gas business, about the company’s existing ties to Russia, some controversial gas exploration projects, and the future of the German-Russian energy relationship.

German-Russian energy ties at risk

by Stefan Nicola

The German-Russian energy relationship has been fl ourishing for 35 years. Russia for decades has been Germany’s largest single energy supplier. The two countries are planning to build a massive underwater gas pipeline, and Gazprom has invited German fi rms to help develop a huge gas fi eld in Western Siberia. Yet political animosities cloud the skies between Berlin and Moscow. What companies and entrepreneurs have managed to create, runs the risk of being thrashed by politicians in both capitals, experts say.

Scramble for Africa: Gazprom gets into the act

by Rudolf ten Hoedt

The Russian gas giant has set its sights on Nigeria. Part of a secret plan to tighten the screws on Europe – or simply a global company following the money?

Planned Trans-Adriatic Pipeline at crucial stage

by Ioannis Michaletos

The Swiss electricity producer EGL has been planning to build a gas pipeline from Turkey to Italy. But the project faces heavy competition.

Gazprom in Serbia

by Anke Truijen

With the effective takeover of the Serbian oil and gas industry, and a deal with Bulgaria to join the South Stream pipeline, Gazprom has further tightened its stranglehold on European energy supplies. ‘These are not just energy deals, they are political deals.’

Emission trade in Russia: Moscow cold-shoulders Kyoto

by Jeroen Ketting

Russia could make hundreds of millions selling CO2-emission credits to the west. So why aren’t they?

Démocratie à la Russe

by Hans van Koningsbrugge

Russian president Vladimir Putin managed to consolidate his power in - heavily criticized - parliamentary elections in December. On March 2, he will most likely manage to repeat this act in the presidential elections. If both elections have something in common, it is that they cannot escape strict Kremlin control. No doubt Putin will also keep a tight control over the country’s energy resources.

South Stream: A grand geopolitical gamble

by Ioannis Michaletos

Russia and Italy are to be connected by a great new gas pipeline. If it is ever built. ‘It is a political as much as an economic initiative.’

Private oil companies face bleak prospects in Ecuador

by Rudolf ten Hoedt

Ecuador returned to OPEC after 15 years of absence. The country was accepted as an active member during a rare Heads of State Summit of last November in Riyadh. Measured by its oil production of 540 thousand barrels a day, no big deal. However, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, who leads the pack of price-hawks within OPEC, had good reasons to welcome Ecuador’s homecoming. He sees in the small Andean country an ally and a reinforcement of the trend among oil-rich countries towards growing state control over resources and increased political use of the “oil weapon”. Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa shares with Chavez the conviction that a new type of socialism is the best way to overcome poverty, weak institutions and underdevelopment. He has issued a ‘wake-up call’ from ‘a neo-liberal nightmare’, although Ecuador in fact has hardly ‘reformed’ its economy. So how close is private oil to packing its bags?

NOCs spread their wings

by Alex Forbes

With the global energy economy set to remain overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels, concern is mounting over access to reserves, particularly of oil and gas. These concerns are fuelled by the resurgence of ‘resource nationalism’ as national oil companies (NOCs), holders of most such reserves, challenge the positions of international oil companies (IOCs), upstream and downstream. The issues raised are crucial to consuming regions increasingly dependent on imports - such as Europe.

Energy on the radar: NATO increasingly concerned with energy security

by Karel Beckman

Does NATO have a role to play when it comes to ensuring energy security for its member states? It is a question that has been hotly debated in NATO and security circles since in March 2006 the Polish Foreign Ministry proposed an “energy Article V” to the NATO Treaty which would pledge all signatories to assist a country in the event of an energy supply disruption. The issue is not settled yet, and will be on the agenda again at the NATO Summit in Bucharest in April. In the meantime, NATO, the EU and the US government are already busy zooming in on the energy hotspots in the world.

Plea for a new Iran policy

by Karel Beckman

The US-Iranian ‘standoff’ is a Sword of Damocles hanging over the Middle East – and the global energy market. It can be solved – if we engage the Iranians instead of driving them into a corner.

Opec weakened by internal turmoil

by Cyril Widdershoven

The future of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has become unclear. The oil cartel is suffering from growing internal strains which may threaten its future. In particular the crash of the dollar is undermining the dominant position of ‘moderate’ member Saudi Arabia and strengthening the lobby of ‘price hawks’ Iran and Venezuela.

Interview Rien T. Segers: ‘We must gain first-hand knowledge about China’

by Annemiek Planting

China is well on its way to becoming a major player in the global energy market. The EU should define a strategy of cooperation, says Professor Rien Segers from Groningen University.

Anti-Gazprom policy may force up gas prices

by Rik Komduur

There is a real chance that Gazprom will be less inclined to take out new long-term gas contracts in future, argues Rik Komduur.

Interview Stanislav Zhiznin: ‘Russia is following the example of Norway’

by Karel Beckman

Proposals made by the European Commission in September to limit Russian investments in the energy infrastructure in the EU have put an extra strain on already greatly strained EU-Russian relations. In his new book Energy Diplomacy, Stanislav Zhiznin, President of the Center for Energy Diplomacy and Geopolitics in Moscow and one of the architects of Russian energy policy, puts into perspective Russian energy policies of the last thirty years.

What a waste: Russian economic success threatened by energy shortage

by Jeroen Ketting

Russia has to improve its energy-efficiency or it amy soon be confronted with energy shortages – in spite of its huge oil and gas reserves.

Stability above all

by Hans van Koningsbrugge

President Putin ensures political stability in Russia while Gazprom weighs its export strategy towards Europe. Meanwhile, the Russian energy sector is sinking deeper into trouble.

Interview Andreas Andrianopoulos: 'Russia cannot meet its obligations'

by Ioannis Michaletos

The former Greek Minister of Energy, Andreas Andrianopoulos, who currently acts for the EU as advisor to the Russian government, talked to EER about the prospects of the Bourgas- Alexandroupoli pipeline and other projects. He is worried about the ability of Russia to meet its commitments.

Pipeline politics boost Turkey’s profile

by Marc Guillet

Russia, the EU and the US are fighting for oil and gas supplies in South-Eastern Europe. The one sure winner is … Turkey.